Australia is expected to have added 25K new jobs in June, below the previous 60.6K. Overheating inflation is still the main theme and the catalyst for risk-off movements. AUD/USD is under pressure and has major chances of a bearish breakout. Australia will report June employment data on Thursday, July 14. The country is expected to have added a modest 25K new jobs after gaining 60.6K in the previous month, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen down to 3.8% from 3.9% in May. Ahead of the figures, Australia will also unveil July Consumer Inflation Expectations, with analysts expecting it at 5.9%, down from 6.7% previously. Employment and inflation As usual, the report will not include wage growth, which is released quarterly in the country around five weeks after the quarter ends. The latest Wage Price Index was the Q1 2022, which rose by 0.7% QoQ and 2.4% YoY, the highest annual rate recorded since December 2018, although still below the comfort RBA’s level at around 3%. Job creation and wage growth have been overshadowed by lingering inflation, not only in Australia. Generally speaking, central bankers’ function is to keep inflation in check at levels between 2% and 3%. So far, policymakers have failed miserably as the Consumer Price Index continues to rise in most global economies. US figures released on Wednesday were quite discouraging, as the CPI soared by 9.1% YoY, higher than anticipated. That means the Federal Reserve could become more aggressive and, therefore, drag other major central banks into tightening their policies. In this scenario, employment figures have lost the power to move the market unless the outcome diverges big from expectations. AUD/USD possible scenarios The AUD/USD pair trades near a 2-year low of 0.6710, as markets are in risk-off mode. A reading below expected will likely lead to a bearish breakout if it does not occur earlier. The pair is technically bearish, which adds to a potential downward extension scenario. Below the 0.6700 threshold, the pair will meet support at 0.6660 and 0.6620. A better-than-anticipated report could push the aussie higher, but sellers will likely return after the dust settles. The immediate resistance level is 0.6802, Wednesday’s daily high, followed by the 0.6870 price zone. 

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6767 Australia will release the June employment report early on Thursday. The American dollar swung alongside the market’s sentiment after US CPI figures. AUD/USD has limited bullish potential in the near term, needs to clear 0.6810. The AUD/USD pair advanced for a second consecutive day, now trading around the 0.6760 level. The intraday direction depended on the greenback, which appreciated amid a bout of risk-aversion. The dismal mood was triggered by US inflation figures, as the headline Consumer Price Index reading soared by 9.1% YoY in June, a new 40-year high. Equities plunged with the numbers, weighing on the pair, later bouncing alongside Wall Street. Australia published July Westpac Consumer Confidence, which improved in July to -3% from -4.5% in the previous month. The country will report June employment data in the upcoming Asian session and is expected to have added a modest 25K new jobs after gaining 60.6K in the previous month, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen down to 3.8% from 3.9% in May. Ahead of the figures, Australia will also unveil July Consumer Inflation Expectations, with analysts expecting it at 5.9%, down from 6.7% previously. AUD/USD short-term technical outlook From a technical point of view, the upside remains limited for AUD/USD. The daily chart shows that technical indicators turned marginally higher, although they are still below their midlines and lacking enough strength to confirm further advances. Meanwhile, moving averages maintain their bearish slopes above the current level, now hovering around 0.6870- The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is struggling around a mildly bearish 20 SMA, while the RSI indicator has already retreated within negative levels. The Momentum indicator, on the other hand, maintains its bullish slope above its midline. Bulls could have better chances if the pair clears the 0.6810 resistance level. Support levels 0.6710 0.6670 0.6625 Resistance levels: 0.6810 0.6850 0.6890 View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6767 Australia will release the June employment report early on Thursday. The American dollar swung alongside the market’s sentiment after US CPI figures. AUD/USD has limited bullish potential in the near term, needs to clear 0.6810. The AUD/USD pair advanced for a second consecutive day, now trading around the 0.6760 level. The intraday direction depended on the greenback, which appreciated amid a bout of risk-aversion. The dismal mood was triggered by US inflation figures, as the headline Consumer Price Index reading soared by 9.1% YoY in June, a new 40-year high. Equities plunged with the numbers, weighing on the pair, later bouncing alongside Wall Street. Australia published July Westpac Consumer Confidence, which improved in July to -3% from -4.5% in the previous month. The country will report June employment data in the upcoming Asian session and is expected to have added a modest 25K new jobs after gaining 60.6K in the previous month, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen down to 3.8% from 3.9% in May. Ahead of the figures, Australia will also unveil July Consumer Inflation Expectations, with analysts expecting it at 5.9%, down from 6.7% previously. AUD/USD short-term technical outlook From a technical point of view, the upside remains limited for AUD/USD. The daily chart shows that technical indicators turned marginally higher, although they are still below their midlines and lacking enough strength to confirm further advances. Meanwhile, moving averages maintain their bearish slopes above the current level, now hovering around 0.6870- The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is struggling around a mildly bearish 20 SMA, while the RSI indicator has already retreated within negative levels. The Momentum indicator, on the other hand, maintains its bullish slope above its midline. Bulls could have better chances if the pair clears the 0.6810 resistance level. Support levels 0.6710 0.6670 0.6625 Resistance levels: 0.6810 0.6850 0.6890 View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Annual CPI in the US is forecast to rise to 8.8% in June. Markets are not sure about the size of the Fed's September rate hike. Core inflation is set to edge lower on falling crude oil prices.  The relentless US dollar rally extends further ahead of the highly-anticipated inflation data from the US. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, is already up more than 3% in July amid growing fears of the global economy tipping into recession. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to a fresh multi-decade high of 8.8% on a yearly basis in June from 8.6% in May. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to decline to 5.8% from 6%. Crude oil prices fell sharply in June, suggesting that it wouldn’t be surprising to see a retreat in core inflation. After having posted gains for six straight months, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost more than 8% in June. US annual CPI chart Market implications The US dollar remains the go-to safe-haven asset as the US Federal Reserve remains on track to continue to tighten its policy with the US economy remaining relatively healthy. The US central bank is widely expected to hike its policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) in July and several FOMC policymakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell, voiced their willingness to do so. Investors, however, are not certain about the size of the September rate increase. After the monthly jobs report showed that Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose more than expected in June, the probability of one more 75 bps hike in July jumped to 30% from 15%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Hence, a hot inflation report could trigger a similar reaction and help the dollar preserve its strength against its rivals. On the other hand, an annual CPI print in line with the market consensus could cause a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” market action. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Monday that she expects new CPI data to be “highly elevated.” Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily DXY chart holds above 70, suggesting the index is overbought and that it could stage a technical correction before continuing its rally. The last time when the daily RSI climbed above 70 in late April, DXY lost more than 1% before resuming its uptrend. Unless CPI figures surpass analysts’ estimates, investors could take the opportunity to book their profits and cause the dollar to weaken. DXY daily chart An unexpected decline in annual CPI could cause market participants to reassess the Fed’s rate outlook and open the door for a USD selloff. Furthermore, a lower-than-expected print could also have a positive impact on market mood and cause the bearish pressure on the greenback to increase. With the Fed going into its blackout period on July 16, investors might refrain from betting on further dollar strength, and DXY could stay in a consolidation phase until the Fed’s policy announcements on July 27. 

Annual CPI in the US is forecast to rise to 8.8% in June. Markets are not sure about the size of the Fed's September rate hike. Core inflation is set to edge lower on falling crude oil prices.  The relentless US dollar rally extends further ahead of the highly-anticipated inflation data from the US. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, is already up more than 3% in July amid growing fears of the global economy tipping into recession. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to a fresh multi-decade high of 8.8% on a yearly basis in June from 8.6% in May. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to decline to 5.8% from 6%. Crude oil prices fell sharply in June, suggesting that it wouldn’t be surprising to see a retreat in core inflation. After having posted gains for six straight months, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost more than 8% in June. US annual CPI chart Market implications The US dollar remains the go-to safe-haven asset as the US Federal Reserve remains on track to continue to tighten its policy with the US economy remaining relatively healthy. The US central bank is widely expected to hike its policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) in July and several FOMC policymakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell, voiced their willingness to do so. Investors, however, are not certain about the size of the September rate increase. After the monthly jobs report showed that Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose more than expected in June, the probability of one more 75 bps hike in July jumped to 30% from 15%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Hence, a hot inflation report could trigger a similar reaction and help the dollar preserve its strength against its rivals. On the other hand, an annual CPI print in line with the market consensus could cause a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” market action. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Monday that she expects new CPI data to be “highly elevated.” Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily DXY chart holds above 70, suggesting the index is overbought and that it could stage a technical correction before continuing its rally. The last time when the daily RSI climbed above 70 in late April, DXY lost more than 1% before resuming its uptrend. Unless CPI figures surpass analysts’ estimates, investors could take the opportunity to book their profits and cause the dollar to weaken. DXY daily chart An unexpected decline in annual CPI could cause market participants to reassess the Fed’s rate outlook and open the door for a USD selloff. Furthermore, a lower-than-expected print could also have a positive impact on market mood and cause the bearish pressure on the greenback to increase. With the Fed going into its blackout period on July 16, investors might refrain from betting on further dollar strength, and DXY could stay in a consolidation phase until the Fed’s policy announcements on July 27. 

Annual CPI in the US is forecast to rise to 8.8% in June. Markets are not sure about the size of the Fed's September rate hike. Core inflation is set to edge lower on falling crude oil prices.  The relentless US dollar rally extends further ahead of the highly-anticipated inflation data from the US. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, is already up more than 3% in July amid growing fears of the global economy tipping into recession. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to a fresh multi-decade high of 8.8% on a yearly basis in June from 8.6% in May. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to decline to 5.8% from 6%. Crude oil prices fell sharply in June, suggesting that it wouldn’t be surprising to see a retreat in core inflation. After having posted gains for six straight months, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost more than 8% in June. US annual CPI chart Market implications The US dollar remains the go-to safe-haven asset as the US Federal Reserve remains on track to continue to tighten its policy with the US economy remaining relatively healthy. The US central bank is widely expected to hike its policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) in July and several FOMC policymakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell, voiced their willingness to do so. Investors, however, are not certain about the size of the September rate increase. After the monthly jobs report showed that Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose more than expected in June, the probability of one more 75 bps hike in July jumped to 30% from 15%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Hence, a hot inflation report could trigger a similar reaction and help the dollar preserve its strength against its rivals. On the other hand, an annual CPI print in line with the market consensus could cause a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” market action. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Monday that she expects new CPI data to be “highly elevated.” Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily DXY chart holds above 70, suggesting the index is overbought and that it could stage a technical correction before continuing its rally. The last time when the daily RSI climbed above 70 in late April, DXY lost more than 1% before resuming its uptrend. Unless CPI figures surpass analysts’ estimates, investors could take the opportunity to book their profits and cause the dollar to weaken. DXY daily chart An unexpected decline in annual CPI could cause market participants to reassess the Fed’s rate outlook and open the door for a USD selloff. Furthermore, a lower-than-expected print could also have a positive impact on market mood and cause the bearish pressure on the greenback to increase. With the Fed going into its blackout period on July 16, investors might refrain from betting on further dollar strength, and DXY could stay in a consolidation phase until the Fed’s policy announcements on July 27.