XAU/USD Current price: 2,015.77 Federal Reserve's speakers repeat the well-known message of wait and see. The United States will publish the January Consumer Price Index on Tuesday. XAU/USD nears the $2,000 mark with a solid bearish stance in the near term. Gold eased throughout the first half of the day, finding some buyers ahead of Wall Street's opening but resuming its slump afterwards. XAU/USD trades near a fresh February low of $2,011.97 despite subdued US Dollar demand. In the absence of relevant macroeconomic data and ahead of first-tier figures scheduled for later in the week, the focus was on Federal Reserve (Fed) officials' words. Board members have been downplaying the odds for a soon-to-come rate hike following the latest monetary policy meeting, generally pointing out that inflation still needs to come closer to their 2% goal and that they need more data before trimming rates. Fed Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman was on the wires on Monday and repeated the current rate is in the rate place, adding it's too soon "to predict" when rates will come down. Finally, she said that she doesn't expect cuts to be appropriate in the immediate future. Thomas Barkin and Neel Kashkari will speak at different events throughout the American afternoon, but no surprises are expected from that side. Meanwhile, the positive tone of equities weighs on the precious metal. US indexes trade in the green, with the S&P 500 extending gains beyond the 5,000 mark and reaching fresh record highs.   Market players are now waiting for a United States (US) inflation update. The country will release the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, which is seen at 0.2% MoM and 3% YoY. The annual core reading is foreseen at 3.8%, slightly below the 3.9% posted in December. Softer-than-anticipated readings could revive hopes for soon-to-come rate cuts in the US. XAU/USD short-term technical outlook The daily chart for XAU/USD suggests it has more room to go. The pair met intraday sellers around a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at around $2,028. The longer moving averages remain far below the current level but have turned directionless. Finally, technical indicators gain downward traction, crossing their midlines into negative territory and reflecting increased selling interest. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the bearish case is clearer. The XAU/USD pair develops below all its moving averages, and the 20 SMA gains is currently accelerating below a flat 100 SMA, both around $2,030. At the same time, technical indicators head firmly lower, approaching oversold readings but far from suggesting a potential downward exhaustion. Support levels: 2,009.10 1,988.90 1,976.50 Resistance levels: 2,028.00 2,044.70 2,065.50 

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.0769 ECB and Fed speakers flooding the macroeconomic calendar at the beginning of the week. Investors await the United States January Consumer Price Index before jumping in. EUR/USD trades with a softer tone after failing to advance beyond 1.0800. The EUR/USD pair retreated after reaching a one-week high of 1.0805 and trades around 1.0770 ahead of the United States (US) opening. Financial markets kick-started the week cautiously, awaiting the release of fresh US inflation data. The country will publish the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) a critical guidance for future Federal Reserve's (Fed) decisions. Adding to the market's quiet stance, major Asian markets were closed amid local holidays at the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, easing US Treasury bond yields undermine demand for the US Dollar. The 10-year note currently offers 4.16%, down 3 basis points (bps) from its previous close. Wall Street, on the other hand, reflects a better mood. The tech sector leads the advance, with the S&P 500 trading at record levels ahead of the opening. Further gains there will likely maintain the USD at check. Data-wise, the macroeconomic calendar has little to offer, although multiple central banks' officials will be on the wires. European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said the ECB's March economic projections will be pivotal for deciding when to start cutting interest rates. Executive Board member Philip Lane will be next to hit the wires, followed by a row of Fed speakers in the American session. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair trades in the red after advancing in the previous four days, and the technical picture suggests bears will maintain the pressure. Technical indicators in the daily chart develop below their midlines with neutral to bearish slopes, reflecting increased selling interest. At the same time, a directionless 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) provides resistance at around 1.0790, with spikes beyond the level being quickly reverted. Finally, the 20 SMA keeps heading south above the longer one, in line with the bearish tone. The 4-hour chart shows EUR/USD has pierced a flat 20 SMA and is currently developing below it, as the longer moving averages head south far above the shorter one. At the same time, technical indicators rotated south and break through their midlines, although their directional strength seems limited. Sellers will be looking for a slide through 1.0720 to confirm the bearish bias and add to their shorts. Support levels: 1.0720 1.0695 1.0650 Resistance levels: 1.0790 1.0840 1.0880

EUR/USD continues to move sideways near 1.0800 on Monday. Strong resistance seems to have formed at around 1.0830. The pair could struggle to find direction ahead of US inflation data on Tuesday. EUR/USD closed the fourth consecutive day in positive territory on Friday but was virtually unchanged for the week. The pair holds steady at around 1.0800 to start the new week. The US Dollar (USD) edged lower ahead of the weekend as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that it revised the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase for December lower to 0.2% from 0.3%. On Tuesday, the BLS will release CPI figures for January and investors could refrain from taking large positions ahead of the inflation report.  Over the weekend, European Central Bank ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta argued that the time for an interest rate cut was fast approaching. "Any speculation on the exact timing of monetary easing would be a sterile exercise," Panetta added. These comments, however, failed to trigger a noticeable reaction in EUR/USD during the weekly opening. The US economic docket will not feature high-impact data releases on Monday. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade flat in the early European session, pointing to a neutral risk mood.  Later in the day, several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are scheduled to speak. At this point, markets are convinced that there won't be a rate reduction in March and comments from officials are unlikely to influence the market positioning in a significant way. EUR/USD Technical Analysis The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart climbed above 50, pointing to a bullish tilt in the short-term outlook. EUR/USD, however, could have a difficult time clearing 1.0830, where the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of the latest downtrend and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) align. A daily close above that level could attract technical buyers and open the door for an extended recovery toward 1.0880 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.0900 (psychological level, 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart). On the downside, interim support is located at 1.0770 (20-period SMA) before 1.0730 (end-point of the downtrend) and 1.0700 (psychological level).

Gold price trades on the wrong footing at the start of the new week. Markets stay cautious amid holiday-thinned trade, ahead of Tuesday's US CPI data. Gold price test critical daily support line at $2,023, as RSI flips bearish. Gold price is looking to extend the previous week's downtrend at the start of the new week on Monday. Gold price is testing the $2,020 level even though the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields remain on the back foot amid holiday-thinned trading conditions. Most of the major Asian markets are closed on Monday, in observance of the Lunar New Year holiday. Gold price stays vulnerable, with eyes on US CPI data Markets are also sensing a calm before Tuesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data storm, as they refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the US Dollar, as well as, the Gold price. Investors are resorting to adjusting their positions on the US Dollar, keeping the Greenback on the back foot so far this Monday. Last week, the US Dollar managed to find its feet against its major rivals, despite markets paring back aggressive US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut bets, as a batch of strong US data affirmed the economic resilience. Markets are now pricing only a 16% chance of a March Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, the odds of a rate cut by the Fed for the May meeting stand at about 60%. Additionally, renewed concerns over China's economic slowdown also helped revive the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. However, further gains in the Greenback remained capped due to the risk-rally on global stocks on encouraging corporate results. Looking ahead, Gold price is likely to maintain its bearish momentum amid pre-US CPI data-led caution trading and easing Israel-Hamas geopolitical tensions. The Israeli military said on Monday it had conducted a "series of strikes" on southern Gaza that has now "concluded," days after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a ceasefire proposal from Hamas. Speeches from Fed policymakers, however, will grab some attention ahead of the critical US inflation report for January, as it could pave the way for a dovish Fed pivot. On Friday, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unveiled the annual revisions to the CPI data. The CPI rose 0.2% in December instead of 0.3% as reported last month. But data for November was revised up to show the CPI increasing 0.2% rather than 0.1% as previously estimated. The CPI gained 0.1% in October vs. 0% reported previously. Upward revisions to the US CPI figures briefly propelled US Treasury bond yields but surging Wall Street indices dulled the attractiveness of the yields and the safe-haven Gold price. Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart As observed on the daily chart, Gold price is teasing a downside break of the rising trendline support at $2,023. A daily candlestick close below that level will trigger a fresh downside toward the $2,000 mark. Ahead of that, the $2,010 round figure will test bullish commitments. The last line of defense for Gold buyers is envisioned at the ascending 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1,990. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing south below the 50 level, suggesting that there is more room for Gold sellers to flex their muscles. Meanwhile, the 21-day and 50-day SMAs Bear Cross also remains in play.   On the flip side, if the trendline support at $2,023 holds, Gold buyers will challenge the $2,030-$2,035 supply zone on an initial rebound. That zone is the confluence of the 21-day and 50-day SMAs. Further up, the $2,040 level will offer stiff resistance. Acceptance above the latter is needed to take on the $2,050 psychological level.

United States macroeconomic data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance. European Central Bank officials gave mixed signals, but rate cuts remain out of the table. EUR/USD remains under selling pressure and could fall towards the 1.0550 price zone. The EUR/USD pair remained under selling pressure throughout the week, extending its slide to a fresh 2024 low of 1.0722 on Monday. The US Dollar momentum, however, receded as days went by, resulting in EUR/USD ending the week pretty much where it started it, around 1.0780. USD rally stalls, Euro remains unattractive Major pairs traded within limited ranges amid a scarce macroeconomic calendar and as global policymakers stuck to their cautious stance on future interest rate cuts. Following a row of central banks' announcements and key economic data, market participants feel discouraged. Investors hoped central banks would speed up monetary tightening in 2024, given that inflationary pressures continued to ease, and as the risks of steeper economic setbacks pend like Damocles' sword among most countries. Yet officials made it clear that they are in no rush to change course, comfortable in the current wait-and-see stances. Eventually, interest rates will be lowered, but not before policymakers have more evidence that inflation, employment, and growth are balanced. Resilient US labor data takes its toll The absence of fresh clues was behind these days' choppy trading. But is it so? In fact, what happened is that hints were against speculative interest desire. The United States (US) reported that Initial Jobless Claims moved lower in the week ended February 2 to 218K from 220K expected, as employers retained workers. Furthermore, the ISM Services PMI jumped to 53.4 in January, much better than the 52.0 expected. Also, the ISM Services Prices Paid sub-index soared to 64.0 from 56.7 in January. Finally, the December Goods and Services Trade Balance posted a deficit of $62.2 billion, as expected. These figures indicate that the labor market remains tight, inflation risks are still high, and the economy continues to grow at an uneven pace. In two words, data supports the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to wait before trimming rates, as the monetary policy may not be restrictive enough. And that's not what the market wants to hear. Market players got some good news ahead of the weekly close, as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase for December lower to 0.2% from 0.3%, while November's CPI increase was revised higher to 0.2% from 0.1%. Eurozone weakness The situation is even more fragile in Europe. Macro data keeps suggesting the economic downturn is yet to find a bottom. The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) released the final updates of the January Services and Composite PMIs, which confirmed the Eurozone economic activity remained in contraction territory at the beginning of 2024. News coming from Germany were mixed, as Factory Orders rose 8.9% in December, beating expectations, although Industrial Production in the same month declined 1.6%. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) published the Economic Bulletin,  which showed the Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner, adding the risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside. Furthermore, the document acknowledged the Euro Area economy is likely to have stagnated at the end of 2023. Finally, it reiterated that the Governing Council would maintain rates at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary.  True, some officials seem to be more willing to trim interest rates, but it won't happen in the first half of the year. US inflation under the spotlight The US will release the January CPI next Tuesday, foreseen at 0.2% MoM and 3.0% YoY. The country will later unveil the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the same period, as well as Retail Sales. Softer-than-anticipated inflation readings could revive speculation of a March rate cut despite local policymakers clearly positioning against such a movement. The Eurozone will publish a revision of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) mid-week, with no other relevant figures scheduled for the days to come. Finally, on Friday, the focus will be on the Fed Monetary Policy Report, while the US will publish the preliminary estimate of the February Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. EUR/USD technical outlook From a technical point of view, the risk remains skewed to the downside. The weekly chart shows that EUR/USD is battling to retain ground above a directionless 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while developing further below an also flat 200 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, gain downward traction, although they remain within neutral levels. In the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair is developing below all its moving averages, meeting sellers around a mildly bullish 100 SMA. The 20 SMA, in the meantime, keeps heading firmly lower, far above the current level, reflecting...

Pound Sterling languished near two-month lows on renewed US Dollar demand. The UK/ US inflation data set to drive GBP/USD price action in the upcoming week. The daily technical setup points to more pain ahead for GBP/USD. The Pound Sterling (GBP) extended its losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) into a fourth straight week, keeping GBP/USD undermined near two-month troughs. Pound Sterling is not out of the woods yet It was all about the market's pricing of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut expectations following the stellar January Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which kept the US Dollar broadly elevated. Odds for a March Fed rate cut dropped to nearly 20% this week, compared with a 68.1% probability at the start of the year. Meanwhile, the odds for a May Fed rate cut now stand at 65%. Markets now price in 115 basis points (bps) of cuts this year, compared with around 150 bps of reductions anticipated a month ago, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The dialing back of Fed rate cuts for this year received a fresh thrust after Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in an interview aired early Monday, dismissed a rate cut next month while pushing back against the timing of the rate cuts. US ISM Services PMI came in stronger at 53.4 in January, as new orders increased and employment rebounded. US Initial Jobless Claims decreased by 9,000 to 218,000 in the week ended Feb. 3, according to Labor Department data out Thursday. Applications for US unemployment benefits fell for the first time in three weeks. Combined with strong US economic data, hawkish Fed commentary throughout the week, convinced markets that chances of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed this year are off the table. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari argued on Monday that a possibly higher neutral rate means that the Fed can take more time before deciding whether to cut. On Tuesday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said that the "economy is on track for a soft landing." Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Wednesday, "for the moment, policy remains well positioned, as we carefully assess the evolving data and outlook," adding it will be "appropriate to begin easing policy restraint later this year." Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said Thursday that they have time to be patient on rate changes and said that he needs to see good inflation numbers being sustained and broadening.  The Greenback also capitalized on firmer US Treasury bond yields, as they remained supported by a couple of strong US government bond auctions.  Ahead of the weekly close, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase for December lower to 0.2% from 0.3%, while November's CPI increase was revised higher to 0.2% from 0.1%, although the news had no measurable impact on GBP/USD. On the other side, a raft of Bank of England (BoE) policymakers also took up the rostrum during the week but failed to have little to no impact on the Pound Sterling even though they retained their hawkish stance. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Monday that it's still too early to declare inflation fully suppressed – still more work to be done. Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said on Wednesday, "My focus has shifted to thinking about how long rates need to remain at their current level." BoE policymaker Catherine Mann noted Thursday that she is not convinced that the near-term deceleration in headline inflation will continue. Meanwhile, on Friday, policymaker Jonathan Haskel said he is encouraged by signs that the UK's inflation pressures might be on the wane but he would need more evidence of a cool-down before changing his stance, per Reuters. Week ahead: It's all about inflation The week opens with BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's speech on Monday, paving the way for the Pound Sterling, as traders gear up for the all-important inflation data release from both sides of the Atlantic. The United States will report the CPI figures on Tuesday while the United Kingdom will follow it up on Wednesday. Tuesday will also see the publication of the UK's labor market report, with a focus on the wage inflation data. On Thursday, the preliminary first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the UK will stand out amidst the releases of the country's trade report and factory data. In American trading that day, the Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data will entertain GBP/USD traders. Friday is also a busy one, with the UK Retail Sales dropping, followed by the US Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Sentiment and housing data. The bi-annual Fed Monetary Policy Report will be published later on Friday. Apart from the data, markets will pay close attention to the speeches from the BoE and the Fed policymakers for fresh...