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Bets for interest rate cuts in June by the Fed and ECB helped the pair. Investors expect the ECB to keep its rate unchanged next week. EUR/USD maintained the positive streak in the weekly chart. EUR/USD managed to clinch its second consecutive week of gains despite a lacklustre price action in the first half of the week, where the European currency slipped back below the 1.0800 key support against the US Dollar (USD). Fed and ECB rate cut bets remained in the fore It was another week dominated by investors' speculation around the timing of the start of the easing cycle by both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Around the Fed, the generalized hawkish comments from rate-setters, along with the persistently firm domestic fundamentals, initially suggest that the likelihood of a "soft landing" remains everything but mitigated. In this context, the chances of an interest rate reduction in June remained well on the rise. On the latter, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin went even further on Friday and suggested that the Fed might not reduce its rates at all this year. Meanwhile, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to see a rate cut at the June 12 meeting as the most favourable scenario at around 52%. In Europe, ECB's officials also expressed their views that any debate on the reduction of the bank's policy rate appears premature at least, while they have also pushed back their expectations to such a move at some point in the summer, a view also shared by President Christine Lagarde, as per her latest comments. More on the ECB, Board member Peter Kazimir expressed his preference for a rate cut in June, followed by a gradual and consistent cycle of policy easing. In addition, Vice President Luis de Guindos indicated that if new data confirm the recent assessment, the ECB's Governing Council will adjust its monetary policy accordingly. European data paint a mixed outlook In the meantime, final Manufacturing PMIs in both Germany and the broader Eurozone showed the sector still appears mired in the contraction territory (<50), while the job report in Germany came in below consensus and the unemployment rate in the Eurozone ticked lower in January. Inflation, on the other hand, resumed its downward trend in February, as per preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures in the Eurozone and Germany. On the whole, while Europe still struggles to see some light at the end of the tunnel, the prospects for the US economy do look far brighter, which could eventually lead to extra strength in the Greenback to the detriment of the risk-linked galaxy, including, of course, the Euro (EUR). EUR/USD technical outlook In the event of continued downward momentum, EUR/USD may potentially retest its 2024 low of 1.0694 (observed on February 14), followed by the weekly low of 1.0495 (recorded on October 13, 2023), the 2023 low of 1.0448 (registered on October 3), and eventually reach the psychological level of 1.0400. Having said that, the pair is currently facing initial resistance at the weekly high of 1.0888, which was seen on February 22. This level also finds support from the provisional 55-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) near 1.0880. If spot manages to surpass this initial hurdle, further up-barriers can be found at the weekly peaks of 1.0932, noted on January 24, and 1.0998, recorded on January 5 and 11. These levels also reinforce the psychological threshold of 1.1000. In the meantime, extra losses remain well on the cards while EUR/USD navigates the area below the key 200-day SMA, today at 1.0828.
Global markets descended into turmoil after Russian forces rolled into Ukraine. Commodity prices have gone through the roof and traders are betting this shock will keep the inflationary fire burning for some time. The Fed and the Bank of England are set to raise interest rates next week to combat spiraling prices, although the most crucial variable for their respective currencies may be whether there’s a ceasefire in the war.
Summary United States: Intensifying War Pours Some Gas on Price Growth Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to loom large as the war has intensified. Most data released this week, however, do not capture the market volatility felt since the invasion has taken center stage. The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $89.7B in January, while job openings remained elevated and consumer prices continued their string of white-hot gains in February. Next week: Retail Sales (Thu), Industrial Production (Thu), Existing Home Sales (Fri) International: European Central Bank Signals a Faster Tapering of Bond Purchases The European Central Bank (ECB) sprung something of a surprise at this week's monetary policy announcement, announcing an accelerated tapering of its bond purchases despite uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine conflict. While the ECB took a more hawkish stance on tapering, it did not make significant changes regarding the timing of interest rate increases, in our view. We still believe the ECB is on pace to lift its Deposit Rate 25 bps at its December 2022 meeting. Next week: China Activity (Wed), Australia Employment (Thu), BoE Policy Announcement (Thu) Interest Rate Watch: Let the Tightening Cycle Commence Despite the uncertainty arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we expect the FOMC to commence monetary tightening with a 25-bp rate hike at next week's meeting. We expect to see a total of 225 bps of tightening between now and the end of 2023. Credit Market Insights: Households Are Wealthy, But Drop in Revolving Credit is an Enigma Data this week showed household net worth climbed above $150T for the first time in Q4 due to attractive opportunities in the stock market and real estate in the pandemic era. In a separate release, January's drop in revolving credit led to a lower-than-expected increase in consumer credit, despite strong spending that month. Topic of the Week: Childcare Issues Impact Working Women In celebration of International Women's Day, March 8th, we examined the industry most central to working women: childcare. Childcare is not only the most female-dominated industry but also the one keeping parents with young children, particularly women, out of the workforce. Download the full report