XAU/USD Current price: $2,030.69 Stocks struggle to extend gains after disappointing United States macroeconomic data. According to CB, United States Consumer Confidence fell for the first time in four months. XAU/USD gains downward traction in the near term, but trades within well-familiar levels. Spot Gold holds on to modest gains mid-US afternoon, with XAU/USD trading around $2,030 a troy ounce. The bright metal aroused no interest among market players on Tuesday, as the pair has fluctuated in the $5.00 range ever since the Asian opening. The Greenback remained on the back foot for most of the day, finding short-lived demand ahead of Wall Street's opening and following United States (US) macroeconomic figures. On the one hand, the country published January Durable Goods Orders, which fell 6.1% in the month, much worse than the 4.5% decline anticipated by market players. On the other hand, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence contracted to 106.7 in February from a downwardly revised 110.9 in January, declining for the first time in four months. Also, and according to the official report,  the Present Situation Index, which reflects consumers' current perception of the business and labor market environment, fell to 147.2 from 154.9, while the  Expectations Index slipped below the pivotal 80 threshold to 79.8.   The data disappointment weighed on stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sunk, while the S&P500 struggles around its opening level, battling to turn green. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury note yield remains stable around the 4.30% figure. Overall, market participants extend the cautious wait-and-see stance ahead of inflation-related data to be released later in the week. XAU/USD short-term technical outlook The XAU/USD pair is little changed for a second consecutive day but retains the neutral-to-bullish stance. In the daily chart, the bright metal keeps developing above a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $2.025, in line with the absence of directional strength. However, the 100 SMA keeps heading north well below the current level, skewing the scale to the bulls' side. Finally, technical indicators keep consolidating around their midlines, failing to provide fresh directional clues. The technical landscape for XAU/USD in the 4-hour chart indicates easing buying interest. Gold remains above all its moving averages, which lack directional strength, but technical indicators are turning south, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator sitting above the midline but heading sharply lower, anticipating a potential bearish extension, particularly on a break below the $2,027 support area.  Support levels: 2,027.00 2,019.60 2,011.40 Resistance levels: 2,041.40 2,056.10 2,065.60

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0858 Market participants await inflation updates that could affect central banks' upcoming decisions. United States Durable Goods Orders and CB Consumer Confidence coming up next. EUR/USD is technically bullish in the near term, but sill limited by a critical Fibonacci level. The EUR/USD pair trades lifeless around the 1.0850 level as market players extend the wait-and-see phase ahead of the release of relevant inflation-related figures and a slew of Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers. The US Dollar trades with a soft tone across the FX board, struggling to find direction as stock markets consolidate their recent gains near record highs. The focus remains on the release of the United States (US) January Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is expected to report the largest gain in a year in the Fed's favorite inflation gauge next Thursday, following an optimistic December report which suggested tempered inflationary pressures. However, the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised with higher-than-anticipated readings, fueling speculation the central bank will further delay rate cuts. At this point, market participants are betting the central bank will trim the current record interest rate next June, but bets can change should PCE inflation bring a positive surprise. Meanwhile, the Eurozone and Germany will also deliver inflation updates. The economies will unveil their preliminary estimates of the February Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the upcoming days. Earlier in the day, the EU released the January M3 Money Supply report prepared by the European Central Bank (ECB). The document indicated a persistently sluggish growth in the broad monetary aggregate M3, which increased by a mere 0.1% in the month, slightly decelerating from a revised 0.2% increase in December 2023. Germany unveiled the Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey, which showed a modest improvement from -29.6 to -29 in March. The upcoming US session will bring January Durable Goods Orders, expected to have plummeted 4.5% in the month, and CB Consumer Confidence, which is foreseen unchanged at 114.8. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair peaked at 1.0866, meeting sellers at around the  38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1139-1.0694 daily slump at 1.0865, although it remains just below the critical resistance area. Technical readings in the daily chart reflect the absence of directional momentum, although the risk remains skewed to the upside, as technical indicators decelerated their advances but hold well above their midlines. At the same time, the pair develops above all its moving averages, although they remain directionless and confined to a tight 40 pips range, reflecting the lack of directional interest. The EURUSD pair retains its bullish potential in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows technical indicators moving marginally higher within positive levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator ticked higher and is currently developing around 65, suggesting the pair has room to extend gains, particularly if it clearly breaks through the aforementioned Fibonacci resistance level. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) has crossed above the 200 SMA, while the 100 SMA stands far below the longer one, usually a sign of bulls' control. Speculative interest is cautiously optimistic, but additional technical signs are required to confirm another leg north.  Support levels: 1.0825 1.0770 1.0720 Resistance levels: 1.0865 1.0910 1.0950

EUR/USD registered its highest daily close since early February on Monday. The technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact. The pair could push higher once it stabilizes above 1.0860. EUR/USD extended its recovery at the beginning of the week and registered its highest daily close since early February at 1.0850 on Monday. The pair faces immediate resistance at 1.0860 and it could continue to push higher once this level turns into support. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde told the European Parliament on Monday that wage pressure in the Euro area were still strong and added that the restrictive policy stance was acting as a safeguard against a wage-price spiral. Lagarde's remarks helped the Euro hold its ground during the American trading hours.

European and American stocks kicked off the week with a pause, as investors took a breather after sending major stock indices in these regions to record highs. The Stoxx 600, the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 all retreated from an ATH level on Monday. MAMAA stocks were down around 1%, Amazon – which had it first day at Dow Jones Industrial index fell 0.15% whereas Nvidia managed to eke out a small gain. It feels like there is a moment of calm and silence in the aftermath of major tech earnings, investors will decide whether this rally deserves to continue higher straight away. The week brings some important economic data on the table. The US will release its latest growth and inflation updates this week. And favourable data – meaning resilient but not abnormally strong growth, coupled with softening inflation, would allow the market bulls to surf on the 'goldilocks' wave. If that's the case, we could see the stock market rally continue, and to broaden to sectors other than the technology stocks. The equal weigh S&P500 index could make an attempt to catch up the technology-heavy S&P500. If not, if growth is resilient, but inflation ticks higher in a way that's concerning for the Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, we could see profit taking and a downside correction across major US indices, and selling could spill over to the other major stock markets. But there are concerns regarding – not the strength of the US growth, but inflation's trajectory. US economic is expected to have grown 3.3% in Q4 – lower than the 5% printed a quarter earlier but still a very strong growth for an economy that has experienced the most aggressive rate hiking cycle of its modern history. And the core PCE – which excludes food and energy prices – is expected to jump by most in a year. Three and six-month inflation – which both fell below the Fed's 2% target  recently- are also expected to spike above this 2% level. An uptick in inflation is not good news for the Fed doves, who already dropped the expectation that the Fed would cut rates by March, and then by May, and now they are trimming the June cut expectations. The expectation of a June Fed cut is given around 60% chance before this week's inflation figures are released. This probability was around 70% just yesterday. US GDP data is due Wednesday, inflation on Thursday. And before that, today, we will have an insight on the durable goods orders, house prices and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Voila. The US 2-year yield is just around the 4.70%, the 10-year yield is a touch below the 4.30% level. Yesterday's 2 and 5-year US auctions both settled at higher yields, as supply was heavy both in government and corporate bond sales. Vanguard's intermediate-term treasury ETF saw the biggest weekly inflow on record as investors continued to scale back their Fed cut expectations fearing that a hotter-than-expected inflation read this week could spoil the market mood. Softening Fed expectations caused outflows from short and ultra-long term bonds to medium-term papers. And speaking of inflation, inflation in Japan fell to a 22-month low. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is in no rush to hike the rates this April. The USDJPY is getting comfortably near the 150 level, as the Nikkei 225 consolidates near ATH levels. In commodities, US crude saw support near the 100-DMA yesterday, but appetite remains insufficient to push the price of a barrel to and above the $80pb level. Nat gas futures remain under pressure as investors remain reluctant to buy the dip even near the current oversold levels. Iron ore prices, on the other hand, fell to the lowest levels since November – a warnings regarding China's inability to boost its property sector despite stimulus.

Gold price bounces toward two-week highs of $2,041 early Tuesday. US Dollar sags with US Treasury bond yields, as key economic data awaited. Gold price teases a pennant breakout and Bull Cross on the 4H chart. Gold price is attempting another run toward the two-week highs of $2,041 reached on Friday, as the US Dollar keeps its downbeat tone intact amid renewed weakness in the US Treasury bond yields and ahead of the top-tier US economic data. Gold buyers take chance as US data looms A sense of caution prevails in Asian trading early Tuesday, as traders eagerly await a fresh batch of high-impact US economic data, including the Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence, for a fresh signal on the timing of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy pivot. Markets are currently pricing in about an 80% chance of a no rate cut by the Fed in the May meeting while the probability that the Fed will begin lowering rates in June stands at 60%, down from about 70% seen last week. Hawkish commentaries from Fed policymakers continue to push back against rate cut expectations, helping the US Treasury bond yields find a floor On Friday, New York Fed President John Williams said that "rate cuts are likely later this year, but only if appropriate." Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that there is no rush to begin cutting interest rates.  Early Tuesday, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, a new hawk, noted that there is "no need to preemptively adjust the stance of policy." "Fed should be patient, wait for convincing evidence that inflation fight has been won," Schmid added. However, the US Dollar fails to draw any inspiration ahead of Thursday's key inflation data release. Therefore, Gold price is looking to extend the previous rebound from the $2,025 support, as traders are likely to refrain from placing fresh bets on the US Dollar before the macro news trickles in. Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart As observed on the four-hour chart, Gold price is teasing an upside break from a pennant formation, testing the falling trendline resistance at $2,034. Acceptance above that level on a four-hour candlestick closing basis is needed to confirm a bullish breakout. The 50-Simple Moving Average (SMA) is looking to cut the 100-SMA for the upside. If that happens, it will validate a Bull Cross. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing north above the midline. Amid potential bullish indicators, the next upside target for Gold price appears a two-week high of $2,041. Further up, the $2,050 psychological barrier will challenge the bearish commitments. On the flip side, a failure to resist above the aforementioned trendline resistance at $2,034, Gold price could see a fresh downswing toward the immediate demand area around near $2,028, which is the confluence xone od the 21-, 200-SMAs and the rising trendline support. A breach of the latter could trigger a fresh drop toward the 50- and 100-SMAs intersection point at $2,021. The line in the sand for Gold buyers is Friday's low of $2,016.

AUD/USD reversed its multi-session positive streak on Monday. The 0.6600 region continues to cap the upside bias. Iron ore prices retreated to four-month lows on Chinese jitters. The upward momentum of the Australian dollar halted on Monday after eight consecutive sessions of gains vs. the US Dollar (USD). In fact, AUD/USD reversed its upward trend despite the continuation of the sell-off in the Greenback and exclusively in response to the marked drop in prices of the tonne of iron ore, which reached multi-month lows near $126.00 on the back of rising inventories and further uncertainty around the Chinese housing market. Price action in spot also followed the lacklustre performance of the US Dollar, as investors continued to assess the likelihood of the start of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) around June or later. This evaluation gained momentum following the latest robust US inflation data, along with persistently hawkish comments from certain Fed officials. Despite the recent recovery of the pair, investors are expected to closely monitor developments in China, fluctuations in commodity prices (especially copper and iron ore), and movements in the Greenback. While additional stimulus measures in China could temporarily support a rebound, news indicating a more sustainable recovery in the country is crucial for providing stronger backing to the Australian dollar and potentially triggering a more significant upward movement in AUD/USD. A rebound in the Chinese economy is also anticipated to coincide with an increase in commodity prices, further supporting the AUD. Moreover, the cautious stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to prevent substantial downward pressure on the Australian dollar. AUD/USD daily chart AUD/USD short-term technical outlook After clearing the weekly top of 0.6595 (February 22), AUD/USD might retest the temporary 55-day SMA at 0.6627, which coincides with the late-January peaks (January 30). A break above this range may propel the pair to the December 2023 high of 0.6871 (December 28), followed by the July 2023 top of 0.6894 (July 14), and the June 2023 peak of 0.6899 (June 16), all before the crucial 0.7000 level. On the other hand, bearish attempts may trigger AUD/USD to initially approach its 2024 low of 0.6452 (February 13). Breaking below this level may lead to a return to the 2023 low of 0.6270 (October 26), followed by the round level of 0.6200 and the 2022 low of 0.6169 (October 13). It is worth mentioning that for AUD/USD to see more short-term gains, it must first leave behind the crucial 200-day SMA, which is now at 0.6561, in a sustainable fashion. The 4-hour chart implies the continuation of the consolidative mood. That said, the initial resistance level is 0.6595, which is followed by 0.6610. Surpassing this zone indicates a likely progression to 0.6728. Meanwhile, a breakdown of 0.6442 may cause a decline to 0.6347 and then 0.6338. The MACD stayed bullish, while the RSI fell to the sub-47 zone.