EUR/USD Current price: 1.0758 Market participants await a US inflation update and central banks' announcements. Stock markets trade mixed, limiting demand for the US Dollar. EUR/USD aims south in a quiet start to the week, support at 1.0720. The EUR/USD pair trades uneventfully within familiar levels on Monday as caution reigns ahead of critical first-tier events. Investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Tuesday, with the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) announcing their monetary policy decisions later in the week. Market participants believe easing inflationary pressures and tepid growth will result in policymakers deciding to maintain interest rates on hold at their last 2023 meetings. The US Dollar is marginally up at the beginning of the week, helped by an uptick in government bond yields, although gains are limited. In the meantime, stock markets trade mixed, with most indexes holding into the green and preventing safe-haven assets from rallying further. Finally, an empty macroeconomic calendar exacerbates range trading ahead of Wall Street's opening. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair hovers around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1275/1.0447 slump at 1.0761, with the risk skewed to the downside. The daily chart shows the pair is developing below its 20 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), while the 100 SMA converges with the mentioned Fibonacci level while maintaining a bearish slope. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain near their recent lows within negative levels, although lacking directional strength. EUR/USD is bearish, according to technical readings in the 4-hour chart. The pair met intraday sellers at 1.0778, where a bearish 20 SMA converges with a flat 200 SMA. The Momentum indicator turned marginally lower at around its 100 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims lower at around 36, favoring a downward continuation. Friday's low at 1.0723 provides near-term support en route to the next Fibonacci support at 1.0645. Support levels: 1.0725 1.0680 1.0645 Resistance levels: 1.0810 1.0860 1.0900

EUR/USD stays on the back foot after closing the previous week in the red. Technical outlook suggests that sellers look to retain control. Investors could refrain from taking large positions ahead of this week's important events. EUR/USD registered losses for the second consecutive week but managed to stabilize at around 1.0750 early Monday. The pair's technical outlook shows that the bearish bias stays intact. Investors, however, could refrain from betting on an extended US Dollar (USD) rally ahead of this week's key macroeconomic data releases and central bank meetings. The upbeat November jobs report from the US helped the USD hold its ground ahead of the weekend on Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 199,000, more than the market expectation for an increase of 180,000, and the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 3.7% from 3.9%. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield gained nearly 2% after the data and the USD Index rose above 104.00.  Early Monday, the cautious market stance allows the USD to stay resilient against its rivals. At the time of press, US stock index futures were down between 0.1% and 0.2% on the day. On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the US will be watched closely by market participants ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcements on Wednesday. Later in the week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will conduct the last monetary policy meeting of the year. EUR/USD Technical Analysis EUR/USD closed the last six 4-hour candles below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator failed to recover above 40, reflecting the lack of buyer interest. 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as important support before 1.0660 (static level). On the upside, immediate resistance is located at 1.0760 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 20-period SMA) ahead of 1.0780 (200-period SMA) and 1.0820 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).

Key highlights EUR/USD struggled near 1.1020 and started a fresh decline. It traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0860 on the 4-hour chart. EUR/USD technical analysis Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled below the 1.0880 support, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4 hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4 hours). It traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0860 on the same chart. There was a drop below the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0656 swing low to the 1.1017 high. The pair is now consolidating above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0656 swing low to the 1.1017 high. If there is a downside break below the 1.0740 support, the pair could drop toward the 1.0700 level. The next major support is 1.0650, below which the bears might take control. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the 1.0820 level. The next key resistance is near the 1.0880 level. The main resistance is near 1.0920. A close above the 1.0920 zone could open the doors for more upsides. The next stop for the bulls might be 1.1000.

Markets As we approach the end of the year, this week holds particular significance for macro observers. The three major central banks, often referred to as the "Big 3" – the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (BoE) – are all scheduled to convene. The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in the United States also stands out as one of the final top-tier economic releases from the world's largest economy. But as usual, most of the market attention bears down on the Federal Reserve meeting, where this time around, Jerome Powell is expected to face questions regarding the timeline for potential insurance cuts. Simultaneously, Christine Lagarde of the ECB may aim to temper speculation about aggressive rate cuts, with some speculating on cuts beginning as early as March or April. In the Eurozone, the notable speed at which inflation has receded has drawn the FX community's attention, where EURO bears are prowling once again. Even Isabel Schnabel, not known for her dovish views, acknowledged as much about the falls in inflation. The precarious state of the European economy, particularly with Germany facing significant challenges, adds another layer of caution to the current economic landscape. The region is on the edge of a potential recession, raising concerns about the overall health of the European economy. Despite Christine Lagarde's statement in October that "The fact that we are holding doesn't mean we will never hike again," the prevailing sentiment suggests skepticism within the market regarding the likelihood of any imminent rate hikes from the ECB. The Bank of England (BoE) finds itself in a challenging position, and the outcome of November's meeting was characterized as a "confused hold." Despite some positive developments on the inflation front, the overall outlook for the UK economy remains precarious. Policymakers are navigating a delicate balance between grappling with very high inflation and the potential for prolonged, underwhelming economic growth. In essence, the Bank of England is treading a tightrope, attempting to strike a balance that ensures stability in the face of divergent economic forces. The upcoming November US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase in the core gauge, while the headline is expected to remain flat. On a year-on-year basis, core price growth is projected to stay at 4%, double the target. Notably, the October CPI report significantly boosted last month's stock and bond rally. While any disappointment (meaning a hotter-than-expected reading) in the November CPI report has the potential to reverse some of the market euphoria, particularly in the context of robust November Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures and an overshoot in Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), a significant upside surprise would be needed to alter the prevailing dovish narrative substantially. As we approach year-end, this week's developments and discussions among central banks and economic data releases will be the ultimate place-setters shaping market expectations. The Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve officials are currently grappling with a delicate balancing act, weighing two potential risks. On the one hand, there's the concern that they might act too slowly to ease policy, leading to an economic downturn under the strain of higher interest rates, resulting in significant job losses for millions of people. On the other hand, there's the fear of easing too early, which could result in inflation settling above 3%. This level of inflation is inconsistent with the Fed's 2% goal, which is designed to provide a level of precision and uniformity for businesses, consumers and market participants alike. This delicate balance reflects the challenge of navigating the complex economic landscape and making policy decisions that address employment and inflation concerns. The diminished pressure on prices has alleviated concerns at the Federal Reserve that consumers and businesses might start anticipating a prolonged period of high inflation, thereby contributing to its persistence. The slower wage growth has helped ease fears of that vicious "wage-price spiral," a scenario in which sustained inflation is fueled by a cycle of rising wages and prices. The combination of these factors has likely influenced the Fed's stance on inflation and provided some reassurance regarding the potential for an inflationary spiral and rate cuts. So, the most critical question facing the economy and financial market participants next year is not whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates but how quickly and deeply they will within two critical probable scenarios. First, the Fed would cut simply because the economy is slowing and unemployment is rising faster than expected. If the unemployment rate starts to rise in a way consistent with past recessions, investors will start running the historical Fed playbook and price in a rapid and more profound rate-cut scenario. A second, more tempting prospect for investors is that the Fed would cut even though the economy is doing fine...

Gold price is back under the $2,000 level, as sellers flex their muscles early Monday. US Dollar cheers a cautious mood, geopolitical risks, despite sluggish US Treasury bond yields. Gold price looks south, as the daily RSI flipped bearish after Friday's breakdown. Gold price is testing a 10-day low of $1,995 set on Friday, seemingly vulnerable early Monday, as the Big Central Banks week kicks off. The United States Dollar (USD) is clinging to its recovery gains amid a cautious market environment and steady US Treasury bond yields. Gold price looks to US inflation data after Nonfarm Payrolls beat Investors trade with caution at the start of the week that comprises key event risks for Gold price, including the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision and the updated projections. The upcoming US events are critical to the market's repricing of the Fed's interest rate expectations next year, especially after Friday's upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls data helped dial back Fed rate cut expectations for March. The latest US labor market report showed that the economy added 199K jobs in November, as against a 150K increase in October and above expectations of +180K. The Unemployment Rate in the United States unexpectedly dropped to 3.7%, compared with a 3.9% print. The data portrayed the continued tightness in the country's labor market, slashing March Fed rate cut bets to about 43% from 60% seen pre-data release. This helped the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar extend their recovery momentum, accentuating the corrective downside in Gold price. Gold price fell to over one-week lows below $2,000, although managed to recapture the latter into the weekly close. Moving back to the price action so far this Monday, Gold sellers are benefiting from the underlying US Dollar strength, as risk sentiment remains tepid due to renewed worries about China's deflation and the ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Yemeni Houthis. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea. On Friday, the French Navy's multi-mission frigate, Languedoc, downed two Houthi drones in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen. Meanwhile, Rockets were fired on Friday at the US embassy in Baghdad. The potential horizontal escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza to the sea lanes off the Gulf of Aden is keeping investors on the edge. Meanwhile, China's CPI fell the fastest in three years in November while factory-gate deflation deepened, suggesting rising deflationary pressures and dwindling economic recovery. Risk trends, Fed expectations and the US Dollar dynamics will continue dominating the Gold price amid a quiet US economic docket on Monday. Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart As observed on the daily chart, the tide has turned in favor of sellers after Gold price settled Friday below the rising trendline support at $2,024 and portrayed a breakdown. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator also drifted into the bearish zone, below the 50 level, pointing to more Gold price weakness ahead. The immediate support is seen at Friday's low of $1995, below which a sharp drop toward the $1,965 area cannot be ruled out. That price zone is the confluence of the November 20 low and the upward-pointing 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Before reaching the 50-day SMA cap, Gold sellers need to crack the static support at $1,980. Meanwhile, Gold buyers would need acceptance above the 21-day SMA at $2,005 on a daily candlestick closing basis to initial a brief recovery toward the $2,040 supply zone. The November 27 high of $2,018 could challenge bearish commitments beforehand.

USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs remain deeply overbought and a long way yet to drop. Long term targets to USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs as follows: USD/JPY : 146.07, 138.01, 133.26, 129.72. GBP/JPY: 181.06, 172.87, 168.89, 167.40. EUR/JPY: 157.78, 150.05, 145.89, 143.39. CAD/JPY: 107.74, 102.97, 100.21, 98.59. CHF/JPY: 164.20, 153.01, 146.39, 141.63. AUD/JPY: 95.49, 92.22, 90.78, 89.91. NZD/JPY: 88.58, 85.51, 83.98, 82.83. The topic of the Himino speech addressed the concept to overall changes in Japanese firms to Wages, Prices and the relationship to both in operation within CPI and the Japanese economy. While the Himino speech was an important supposition to monetary policy and the age old dilemma to wages and prices, Himino's journey was a pure speculative venture to how the Wage / Price concept possibly leaves what he termed the frozen state. Then the further concepts on how to understand  and view wages and prices in relation to households, corporates and Japanese financial institutions. Himino then walks us through the 4 stages of developments to price increases and decreases, labor costs, purchase and selling prices and wages. As brilliant as the BOJ presented themselves since 2016, Himino loses the Wage / Price concept in stage 1 as stage 1 is home to the not controllable price from the West through  Imported Inflation and the changing market price of Oil. How is Imported Inflation and Oil controlled without imposing a radical concept as Autarky in Japan's prices. As Himino stated in a number of instances, the complexities to Wages, Prices and satisfaction to prevent deflation may never materialize. Throughout the speech, Himino stated, if the wage/price concept was ever satisfied, the question to Monetary Easing must be revisited. Himino's big mouth by design or not intentioned, unleashed USD/JPY and cross pairs selling. The alarming aspect to the Himino speech was how a speculative speech turned into psychotic reports of end Negative interest rates, BOJ December was most vital, new monetary policy, Easing discontinued. The currency analysts and leading Website voices  of our day revealed they are beyond repair. Stage 1 Firms reflect higher import prices in selling prices. Stage 2 Firms reflect higher general price levels in wages. Stage 3 Firms reflect higher labor costs in selling prices. Stage 4 Firms' pricing policies become more diverse, facilitating firms to explore strategies of selling more.attractive products and services at commensurate prices, not just good products and services at low prices. The week GDP for Japan rose by 0.2 while websites reported a loss by 0.2. A higher negative = increase. The wildcards to the week are GBP/USD and USD/JPY as both begin the week in perfect neutrality. GBP/USD below must break 1.2515 and USD/JPY higher must clear 146.80. Oversold GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD begin the week deeply oversold as GBP/NZD sits at vital 2.0100 and EUR/NZD at 1.7300's. EUR/USD must break 1.0807 to range from 1.0807 to 1.0875. EUR/USD longs are assisted by oversold EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD trade deeply oversold. GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD remain locked in tiny ranges by many and massive supports below the current opening prices at 1.7034 and 1.4612. AUD/USD trades from 0.6541 to 0.6759 and no changes from the past 2 weeks. Same story for NZD/USD to trade from 0.6065 to 0.6260.

A strong US labor market fueled demand for safety by the end of the week. The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank take centre stage. EUR/USD is poised to extend its slump in the upcoming days towards 1.0640. The US Dollar turned north this past week, partially losing its pace on Thursday, as speculative interest took a break ahead of the United States (US) employment figures scheduled for Friday. On the contrary, the Euro remained on the back foot as the economic future remains uncertain. As a result, EUR/USD retreated below the 1.0800 mark, edging sharply lower for a second consecutive week. The market mood was mostly sour throughout the week, further driving EUR/USD lower. Moody's credit agency downgraded China's A1 debt rating from stable to negative, citing the increasing risks to growth and the property sector crisis on Tuesday, pushing stock markets down and backing demand for the safe-haven USD. Data shows that the EU is not out of the woods In the last few months, European macroeconomic figures indicated that the Eurozone could suffer a steep recession in the near future, with growth-related gauges reflecting continued economic contraction. And indeed, there were no fresh good news to change such a picture. The EU reported  Retail Sales were down 1.2% YoY in October, while the annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was downwardly revised to 0.0% in Q3. Meanwhile, German Industrial Production contracted by 3.5% YoY in October,  while Factory Orders were down by 7.3% in the same period.  On a positive note, the country confirmed November inflation by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices  (HICP) at 2.3% YoY, not far from the European Central Bank (ECB) target, but it is becoming evident the high cost the central bank is paying for taming inflation. The aggressive monetary tightening, now on pause, has taken its toll on economic progress. The final effects are yet to be seen, and despite policymakers pledging to maintain rates higher for longer, a soon-to-come rate cut does not sound that crazy as the risk of a downturn increases month after month. Speculative interest continues to bet against the central bank, looking for the first rate cut in the EU in the second quarter of 2024. United States resilience Across the Atlantic, US data was more encouraging. The November ISM Service PMI resulted in 52.7, up from 51.8 in the previous month and indicating expansion in the sector for the eleventh consecutive month. Meanwhile, employment-related figures fell short of showing a loosening labour market, something the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would welcome to help balance inflation and growth. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed the number of job openings on the last business day of October stood at 8.73 million,  down from 9.35 million in the previous month. Additionally, the ADP Survey on job creation showed the private sector added 103,000 new positions in November, missing expectations of 130,000. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday overshadowed the positive figures. Markets turned risk-averse with a strong outcome, as the country added 199,000 new job positions in November, while the Unemployment Rate declined to 3.7%, both numbers beating expectations. The strong figures cooled rate-cut speculation ahead of the Fed's meeting. A tight labor market increases people's spending power and, hence, pushes inflation up. The contrary happens with a loosening sector, which would maintain the Fed in the on-hold path. It is worth noting at this point that the Fed is also on the higher-for-longer path, as officials have dismissed a potential rate cut multiple times in the first semester of 2024. Still, the tone has become more dovish in the latest appearances, fueling speculation the central bank is paving the way towards a monetary policy shift. Central banks' definitions coming up next The Fed and the ECB will announce their last monetary policy decisions of the year next week and could provide investors with clues on whatever central banks are planning for the upcoming months. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to keep interest rates on hold in the upcoming December 12-13 meeting as the central bank juggles to take down inflation to its 2% goal while avoiding an economic recession. Ahead of the announcement, financial markets are looking for the first rate cut as soon as March 2024. How the decision affects such a date will set the tone for the USD in the next few months. The ECB faces quite a different scenario ahead of its decision. On the one hand, it seems there is no clear consensus among the Governing Council. Hawks and doves are giving mixed hints on what's next for the central bank, with some officials hinting at rate cuts and others indicating rate hikes are still on the table for 2024. On the other...

Pound Sterling gave up control against the US Dollar, as GBP/USD corrected to a two-week low. A blockbuster week, with central banks' 2023 finale set to rock the Pound Sterling. Downside appears limited for GBP/USD, as strong support aligns near 1.2450. The Pound Sterling snapped a three-week uptrend against the United States Dollar (USD), fuelling a GBP/USD correction to two-week lows below 1.2600. Traders gear up for a central bank bonanza week, which could lead to a spike in volatility for the pair. Pound Sterling gives into the US Dollar comeback GBP/USD reversed the previous week's gains and lost almost 150 pips, as the US Dollar staged a solid comeback against its major counterparts. Weak US JOLTS Job Openings and ADP Employment Change data suggested loosening labor market conditions and affirmed increased expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in March weighing heavily on the US Treasury bond yields. However, this failed to deter US Dollar bulls, as Australian, UK and the euro area peripheral bond yields fell relatively rapidly after traders ramped up rate-cut bets for other central banks. Markets priced in around an 85% chance that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates at the March meeting while the odds of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) being done with its hiking cycle also rose after this week's dovish pause. Meanwhile, a quarter-point Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in June next year and a second reduction in September was fully baked in. For the Fed, the probability of a March rate cut stood at roughly 60%. On the data front,  the Institute for Supply Management  (ISM) showed on Tuesday that the Services PMI registered 52.7 in November, firming up from October's reading of 51.8. However, US JOLTS Job Openings slid to more than a 2-1/2-year low of  8.733 million in October. The US  Private payrolls rose by 103,000 jobs last month, the ADP Employment Change data showed on Wednesday, with the previous figure revised lower to show 106,000 jobs added instead of 113,000. The market consensus was for a 130K increase. Meanwhile, there was nothing of note from the UK economic docket, except for the S&P Global final Services PMI, which showed an upward revision to 50.9 from the 50.5 preliminary readout. The UK service providers moved back into expansion mode during November but failed to inspire the Pound Sterling. In the second half of the week, however, British Pound found some support amid a pause in the US Dollar upswing, as traders weighed the prospects of Fed rate cuts ahead of next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision. The US Dollar accelerated north on Friday following a stronger-than-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Not only the country added 199K new jobs in November, but the unemployment rate declined to 3.7%. The figures spurred concerns, as they still indicate a tight labor market, which means the Federal Reserve has more to do to maintain inflation under control. Odds for rate cuts in 2024 decreased ahead of the central banks' meetings next week and the US CPI release. Key events to watch out for Pound Sterling traders Pound Sterling traders will be bracing themselves for one of the most eventful weeks of this year, studded with major global central bank final monetary policy announcements. The Fed is set to announce a rate on-hold decision on Wednesday, followed by the BoE's steady policy announcement on Thursday. This time around, it's not just the interest rate decision, the former will publish the Statement of Economic Projections (SEP) – the so-called Dot Plot chart, which will be key to gauging the central bank's interest rates outlook next year. Meanwhile, the BoE's communication in the policy statement will be closely scrutinized, as both, the Fed and the BoE, are expected to embark on the rate cuts trajectory in 2024. The next direction of the GBP/USD pair hinges on the Fed-BoE policy outlooks but volatility is set to remain intense. Ahead of these events, the top-tier Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data from the US and the employment report from the UK are likely to provide some trading impetus on Tuesday, as Monday offers a quiet docket on both sides of the Atlantic. On Wednesday, the UK monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data could entertain Pound Sterling markets in the lead-up to the Fed showdown. Meanwhile, the Retail Sales and weekly Jobless Claims will fill up the US docket on Thursday, following the BoE policy outcome. The European Central Bank (ECB) is also due to announce its interest rate decision that day, and hence, could have the EUR/GBP cross-driven 'rub-off' effect on the Pound Sterling on any surprises. Friday will feature the S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI data from the US and the UK. Also, the...

Gold reversed its direction after setting a record-top this week. The near-term technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum. Inflation data from the US and the Fed's policy announcements could drive XAU/USD's action. Following an impressive rally at the beginning of the week, Gold turned south and snapped a three-week winning streak. As market focus shifts to next week's key data releases and central bank events, XAU/USD's technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum. Gold price retreated sharply after setting a record-high Gold opened with a huge bullish gap and reached a new all-time-high near $2,150 in the early Asian session on Monday as markets reacted to escalating geopolitical tensions. After Yemen's Houthi rebels hit three commercial ships in the Red Sea on Sunday, a US warship responded by shooting down three drones. Yemen's Houthi movement acknowledged that they had targeted two Israeli ships, stating that they were responding to calls from Islamic nations to stand with the Palestinian people. This development revived fears over the Israel-Hamas conflict turning into a widespread crisis in the Middle East. Following the record-setting upsurge, profit-taking triggered a deep correction in XAU/USD and the pair closed in negative territory near $2,030. On Tuesday, the data from China showed that Caixin Services PMI improved to 51.5 in November from 50.4. Later in the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of job openings on the last business day of October declined to 8.7 million from 9.3 million in September. On a positive note, the ISM Services PMI edged higher to 52.7 in November from 51.8 in October, pointing to an acceleration in the business activity's growth in the service sector. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell more than 2% after mixed US data and helped XAU/USD find a foothold. Employment in the US private sector increased by 103,000 in November, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) announced on Wednesday. This print fell short of the market consensus of 130,000. Although the risk-averse market atmosphere allowed the US Dollar (USD) to stay resilient against its rivals despite the uninspiring employment data, Gold's downside remained limited as US yields continued to stretch lower. China's trade surplus widened to $68.39 billion in November from $56.53 billion, the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China reported early Thursday. On a yearly basis, imports declined by 0.6% in the same period. Gold managed to hold its ground and closed near $2,030 but the action in financial markets remained choppy ahead of Friday's highly-anticipated US November jobs report. The BLS' monthly publication revealed that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 199,000 in November. This reading followed October's increase of 150,000 and came in better than the market expectation of 180,000. Moreover, the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 3.7% from 3.9% in October. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield turned north and advanced beyond 4.2% following the labor market data and forced XAU/USD to retreat below $2,010. Gold price could react significantly to US data and the Fed's dot plot Markets have plenty of data releases and macroeconomic events to keep an eye on next week before holiday trading takes over.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November will be released on Tuesday. In October, the monthly CPI was unchanged. A negative print in this data could weigh on the USD with the initial reaction and provide a boost to XAU/USD. Investors will also pay close attention to the Core CPI reading, which is expected to increase 0.2% for the second consecutive month. A reading of 0.4% or higher could help the USD find demand. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision and release the revised Summary of Projections (SEP), the so-called dot plot. September's SEP showed that policymakers' projections implied one more 25-basis-point rate hike this year and 50 bps of rate cuts in 2024. At this point, it would be a significant bullish surprise if the Fed opted not to leave the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. Market participants will scrutinize the dot plot to try to figure out the timing of the policy shift. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a nearly 60% probability that the Fed will lower the policy by 25 bps as early as March. In case the revised SEP points to a total of 100 bps or more rate cuts next year, US yields could push lower and XAU/USD could gather bullish momentum. On the other hand, a no-change in 2024 rate expectations could have the opposite impact and trigger a USD rally. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's last press conference of the year could also impact XAU/USD's action following the immediate reaction to the SEP. Powell is likely to push...

EUR/USD went into a consolidation phase below 1.0800 after posting gains on Thursday. Nonfarm Payrolls in the US are forecast to rise by 180K in November. A disappointing jobs report could weigh on the USD ahead of the weekend. EUR/USD benefited from broad-based US Dollar (USD) weakness on Thursday and registered daily gains for the first time since November 28. Early Friday, the pair holds steady slightly below 1.0800 as market participants refrain from taking large positions ahead of the US November jobs report. The positive shift seen in risk mood made it difficult for the USD to find demand in the second half of the day on Thursday and allowed EUR/USD to inch higher. 

Gold price is extending its range-play near $2,030 early  Friday. US Dollar is licking its wounds, as US Treasury bond yields cling to recovery gains. Gold price looks north on a weak US Nonfarm Payrolls report, as the daily chart leans bullish. Gold price is extending its range-play into the fourth straight trading day early Friday, as investors prefer to stay on the sidelines before the release of the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls data later in the day. US Nonfarm Payrolls could offer a fresh boost to Gold price Gold price is treading water, lacking any impetus, as traders refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the United States Dollar (USD) in the lead-up to the critical US jobs data. The US Dollar is licking its wounds after falling hard in tandem with the USD/JPY pair. The Japanese Yen rallied over 500 pips against the US Dollar on Thursday, smashing USD/JPY to a new four-month low of 141.63 on hopes of a Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy pivot earlier than expected. Despite the US Dollar sell-off, Gold price failed to benefit, as the US Treasury bond yields rebounded firmly from multi-month lows, diminishing the appeal of the non-interest-bearing Gold price.  Markets resort to repositioning in the US government bonds and the US Dollar, as they seek to lock in profits heading toward next week's Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. In the meantime, the highly anticipated US labor market data will be closely scrutinized for fresh hints on the Fed's interest rate outlook, with markets pricing roughly 60% odds of a rate cut in March. The NFP data is expected to show that the US economy added 180K jobs in November, as against the previous job growth of 150K while wage inflation, as measured by Average Hourly Earnings, is seen rising 4.0% YoY in November. The latest US ADP and JOLTS Job Openings data pointed to loosening labor market conditions. If a weak US NFP print confirms that, the Fed rate cuts are likely to shoot up, smashing the US Dollar alongside the US Treasury bond yields. In such a case, Gold price is likely to reclaim the $2,050 barrier on a sustained basis. Contrarily, should the data outpace expectations, markets could use that as an excuse for profit-taking ahead of the Fed verdict. The Gold price correction could then resume toward the $2,000 mark. Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart As observed on the daily chart, Gold price has been making higher lows following Monday's volatile trading, suggesting that there is more scope for a fresh upside. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator edges higher above the midline, backing the bullish potential in Gold price. Gold buyers need to find acceptance above the $2,050 region to unleash additional advances toward the $2,100 threshold. Fresh buying opportunities will pop up above the latter, targeting the all-time highs of $2,144. On the other hand, the immediate support is seen at Tuesday's low of $2,009, below which the $2,000 threshold will be a critical test for bullish traders. At that level, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns. The next downside cushion is then seen at the $1,980 round figure.

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6606 Improvement in risk appetite helped the rebound of AUD/USD.  US Dollar loses momentum and retreats amid lower Treasury yields ahead of NFP.  The pair stays above the key 20-day SMA, with further gains likely while above 0essential90. The AUD/USD rebounded from the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and two-week lows at 0.6525, reaching levels above 0.6600. The sharp rebound took place amid an improvement in market sentiment and on the back of a weaker US Dollar. Trade data from Australia showed a 0.4% increase in exports in October, with the annual rate improving from -11.9% to -14.3%; imports declined by 1.9%, with the annual rate at 2.4%. Chinese exports turned positive from a year ago for the first time since April, but imports were lower than a year ago, suggesting that weak domestic demand persists. The US Dollar weakened on Thursday and drove the AUD/USD pair to the upside. A decline in US Treasury Yields weighed on the Greenback. The momentum for the Greenback also faded, affected by an improvement in risk sentiment. Data from the US showed that Initial Jobless Claims rose to 220,000 in the week ending December 2, slightly below the expected 222,000, while Continuing Claims fell to 1.816 million. Despite the recovery, overall claims point to a softer labor market, like the ADP report indicated and is what market participants are expecting from Friday's Nonfarm Payroll report. However, the impact from labor market data could be limited if it does not show major surprises. Markets see the Federal Reserve (Fed) not raising rates further and speculate about when it will start cutting. The numbers are unlikely to alter current expectations. AUD/USD short-term technical outlook The AUD/USD has remained above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and is also above the 200-day SMA. It is still in negative for the week but has trimmed its losses. The Australian Dollar isn't ready to resume its upside move, but the correction has weakened. The technical indicators on the daily chart are now more balanced. On the 4-hour chart, the price is above the 20-SMA and above 0.6600. While it stays above this level, further gains seem likely. However, it would need to break above 0.6630 for a clearer outlook, opening the door for 0.6660. On the downside, a break below 0.6575 could lead to a test of 0.6545. Support levels: 0.6595 0.6565 0.6525  Resistance levels: 0.6630 0.6660 0.6690 View Live Chart for the AUD/USD