EUR/USD stabilized above 1.0800 after closing in positive territory on Tuesday. The pair could face next resistance at 1.0840. Fed will release the minutes of the January policy meeting later in the day. EUR/USD gained traction and climbed to its highest level since early February at 1.0840 on Tuesday. Although the pair edged lower afterward, it managed to stabilize above 1.0800. The near-term technical outlook points to a bullish tilt. As trading conditions normalized following a three-day weekend in the US, the US Dollar (USD) came under bearish pressure amid retreating US Treasury bond yields during the American trading hours on Tuesday. Early Wednesday, the cautious market mood, as reflected by falling US stock index futures, helps the USD hold its ground and limits EUR/USD's upside.  Later in the day, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the minutes of the January policy meeting.  According to CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a nearly 70% probability that the Fed will leave the policy rate unchanged in the next two policy meetings. Since the January policy meeting took place before the January labor market and inflation data releases, which caused investors to doubt a rate cut in May, the publication is unlikely to offer any fresh clues regarding the timing of the policy pivot. Meanwhile, investors will pay close attention to comments from Fed policymakers later in the day. In case officials downplay the latest hot inflation readings and leave the door open to a rate reduction in May, the USD could come under renewed selling pressure. On the other hand, EUR/USD could have a difficult time extending its rebound in case safe-haven flows dominate the financial markets later in the day. EUR/USD Technical Analysis The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator climbed above 60 and EUR/USD closed the last 6 4-hour candles above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), highlighting a bullish tilt in the short-term outlook. 1.0800 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend, psychological level) aligns as immediate support. In case this level holds, buyers could remain interested. On the upside, 1.0840 (200-period SMA) could be seen as first resistance before 1.0860 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.0900 (psychological level, static level). Below 1.0800, 1.0780 (100-period SMA) could act as next support. A 4-hour close below that level could attract technical sellers and open the door for a leg lower toward 1.0760 (static level, 50-period SMA).

In focus today Today, we receive euro area consumer confidence figures for February. Consumer confidence is still at a low level which is likely the reason for the sluggish consumption ratio. Consumer confidence rebounded strongly during the first half of 2023 but has since stagnated. An increase in consumer confidence could be the trigger for higher private consumption in 2024 as real incomes improve. Tonight, minutes from the FOMC's January meeting will be released. Markets will keep a close eye on any clues regarding the timing of the first rate cut, which we now expect to come in May. In addition, the Fed's Bostic and Bowman will be on the wires ahead of the release. Overnight, Japanese PMI figures kick off the slew of PMI data that is due tomorrow. Economic and market news What happened overnight Japanese export volumes declined 4.6% in January indicating a slow start to the year following the technical recession in 2023H2. That said, January PMIs were more uplifting but have not been a good GDP indicator recently. What happened yesterday Yesterday we got Q4 GDP figures for Denmark, which showed an impressive rebound with a growth rate of 2.0% q/q. Furthermore, Q3 growth was revised up to 0.4% from -0.7%. The development was largely driven by pharmaceuticals, where manufacturing GVA increased almost 8% q/q in Q4, which also drove exports higher. Consumption also ticked up with quarterly growth of 1.7%, indicating somewhat less cautious consumers. All in all, this means the economy grew 1.8% for the year 2023, which is substantially more than the Eurozone. However, when excluding pharmaceuticals, the numbers show a decline of 0.1%. Euro Area negotiated wage growth declined to 4.46% in Q4 from 4.7% y/y in Q3. This was in line with other trackers from the ECB and suggests that wage growth peaked in Q3. The ECB has repeatedly told markets that they await more data on wage growth, so this should provide some comfort, though they will likely still be cautious as we have yet to get the full overview of wage growth in Q4, which we will get with the "compensation per employee" print, due for release on 8 March. The market reaction was muted, with pricing still suggesting the first rate cut in June. Finally, we got somewhat dovish comments from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey who said that it was "not necessary" to wait for inflation to come back to target before cutting rates, adding also that the Bank was particularly focused on whether services inflation and wage growth were on a sustained path towards headline inflation. The market reaction was muted. Equities: Global equities were lower yesterday with DM underperforming EM. DM is driven by macro and inflation data while EM is driven by China and the next step of policy support for the property sector. Defensive value outperforming globally on the higher for longer narrative but also boosted by earnings reports and earnings expectations yesterday. Investors embracing the earnings from retailers while taking some chips of the table in tech space ahead of tonight's reporting from Nvidia. Yesterday in the US Dow -0.2%), S&P 500 -0.6%, Nasdaq -0.9% and Russell 2000 -1.4%. Asian markets are mixed as the tech sector is dragging down most indices. Chinese indices are mostly higher as property developers are rising on the back of the last batch of policy support. Futures in US and Europe are mixed this morning with the tech-heavy indices trailing the rest. FI: There was a modest decline in global bond yields yesterday, where 10Y US Treasury yields declined 3-4bp relative to the opening level on Tuesday morning. 10Y German govt yield also declined 4-5bp. There was also a bullish steepener between 2Y and 10Y for both the US and European government bond yield curves. FX: SEK gained for the second straight day versus the rest of the G10 closely followed by the EUR, NZD and AUD. CAD and USD lost some ground yesterday, with EUR/USD rising to a two-week high just below 1.0840.

The Eurozone's current account surplus climbed to a six-month high of 31.9bn in December. Analysts, on average, had expected a decline to 20.3 bn from 22.5 bn the previous month. The current level was seen in the eurozone during the relatively benign pre-Covid period and sometime before Natural Gas prices spiked in the second half of 2021. The normalisation of the surplus is good news for the single currency, as it means more net capital inflows into the region. But this growth has been fuelled by falling imports, which can be the result of lower commodity and energy prices (which is a very good thing), but also partly indicative of a slowdown in domestic demand. This threatens to translate into economic contraction in the coming months. The euro area experienced periods of severe import contraction in late 2008 and early 2010, and in both cases, the economy experienced a severe downturn. Back in 2008, all this was accompanied by the collapse of the Euro.

Markets Without significant macroeconomic developments, investors have shifted their focus to micro-level dynamics, particularly in the technology sector. Big tech companies have exerted downward pressure on the stock market overnight, lugging it away from its recent all-time highs.  Amid this backdrop, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite experienced the most significant decline, dropping nearly 1% in value. The broader market also saw losses, with the S&P 500 falling approximately 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreasing roughly 0.2%. These declines come after a rocky week on the macro front, in which all three major indices closed lower amid doubts about the odds of a "soft landing" after a hotter-than-inflation gut punch knocked investors slightly off their bullish bias.  Investors closely monitored earnings as markets resumed trading in full swing after the Presidents' Day Break. Still, Wall Street is laser-focused on those from Nvidia (NVDA) scheduled for Wednesday. The market views Nvidia's earnings as the artificial intelligence ( AI )bellwether. Given its significance as the third-largest company by market value and its focus on AI, it could be seen as a trend-setting short-term turning point. With only a few mega-cap stocks driving most of the recent gains in the market, any potential shortfall in Nvidia's earnings, especially amid high expectations, could trigger a broader pullback in stocks. With the Mag 7 influence over broader market trends, their earnings reports have taken on a high-risk event status, akin to top-tier macro events. So, in a sense, we should not be surprised by the -4 % drop in Nvidia's shares overnight as investors take some "chips" ( pardon the pun) off the table to mitigate risk in an adverse market reaction. But unlike macro events, where market reactions often follow a binary pattern, earnings reports present a more nuanced challenge. Even if an earnings report hits the mark precisely, predicting the market's reaction remains uncertain. The first question investors will ask is, are the earnings good enough? Given the high valuation and the current muddled US macro scrim, answering that question too quickly can lead to a psychological impulse to sell the news rather than buy the facts.  Essentially, the narrative remains consistent each quarter for mega-cap companies, barring a few turbulent reports in 2022. Generally, their financial numbers continue to meet or exceed expectations. These corporate giants have become ingrained in the fabric of life for consumers and business people across developed and developing nations, symbolizing a significant portion of daily existence. While there may be occasional dips in performance, very few quarters can be classified as objectively harmful. The perception of a "bad" quarter often depends on relative or subjective measures rather than absolute balance sheet shortcomings. Oil markets The oil market experienced a modest selloff at the beginning of the holiday-shortened week as traders sifted through conflicting demand signals from major global economies. During its Lunar New Year holidays, China witnessed a significant surge in domestic travel and spending, surpassing pre-pandemic levels for the first time since 2020. However, on Tuesday, China's central bank announced a rate cut to revitalize a struggling property sector that failed to ignite enthusiasm in oil markets. But the pushback on the bullish thesis is stagflation concerns in the US. Investors continued to digest mixed macroeconomic data for January. Both consumer and producer inflation unexpectedly accelerated, while retail sales sharply declined.

Gold price sits at multi-day highs near $2,030 ahead of the Fed Minutes. US Dollar stays weak with the US Treasury bond yields, despite a tepid risk tone.  Gold buyers flex muscles after recapturing 21-day SMA near $2,025. RSI flips bullish.   Gold price is looking to extend its winning streak into a fifth straight day on Wednesday, sitting close to the highest level in five days reached at $2,031 on Tuesday. A sustained US Dollar (USD) weakness combined with subdued US Treasury bond yields render positive for Gold price, as buyers await the US Federal Reserve (Fed) January meeting Minutes for the next push higher.   Gold price braces for Fed Minutes and Fedspeak The latest leg down in the US Dollar could be attributed to renewed fears of a United States (US) government shutdown. House Republicans have shifted from optimistically cautious to expecting a government shutdown unless a budget or spending stopgap is passed by March 1, according to a report carried by Axios. The government will go into a full shutdown by March 8. The prolonged fiscal issue in the US is keeping the US Treasury bond yields on the defensive, exerting additional downside pressure on the US Dollar, even as risk sentiment remains tepid. Asian markets opened lower on Wednesday, tracking a negative Wall Street close. However, Chinese stocks have rebounded firmly on hopes of more stimulus coming through from Beijing to prop up the property market and the overall economy. Gold price is taking advantage of the ongoing US Dollar weakness, looking forward to the release of the Fed's January meeting Minutes, which could provide fresh hints on the timing of the first-rate cut this year. in the absence of any high-impact US economic data releases on Tuesday. Also, of note remains the earnings result from the American tech-giant Nvidia on Wednesday, as it could have a significant impact on the market sentiment. Markets are currently pricing a 77% chance of a cut in June, according to the CME Group's Fed Watch Tool. Markets now expect 92 basis points (bps) of cuts from the Fed this year, closer to the Fed's projection of 75 bps of easing and sharply below the 150 bps of cuts priced in by traders at the start of the year, per Reuters. Also, of note will be earnings result from the American tech-giant Nvidia on Wednesday, which could have a significant impact on the market sentiment, in turn, influencing the value of the US Dollar and the Gold price. American chipmaker Nvidia stumbled on Tuesday, leading the decline in the US stocks, in anticipation of its earnings report. Besides, Atlantic Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will make their respective scheduled appearances later on Wednesday, offering some food for thought for Gold traders. Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart Gold price finally yielded a daily closing above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $2,023, on Tuesday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) extended its recovery above the midline, suggesting that the tide may have turned in favor of Gold buyers. Therefore, the immediate resistance is now seen at the $2,033 level, where the 50-day SMA and the February 13  high coincide. A sustained break above that level will generate fresh buying opportunities in Gold price, targeting the February 7 high of $2,044 and the $2,050 psychological barrier. On the contrary, if Gold sellers fight back control, the 21-day SMA at $2,023 will need to hold the fort. A failure to defend the latter could fuel a fresh downswing toward the previous day low of $2,015, followed by the rising trendline support that aligns at $2,011. The upwsrd-pointing 100-day SMA at $2,002 will act as a tough nut to crack for Gold sellers.

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6552 The Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes left the door open for additional rate hikes. Speculation mounts the Federal Reserve will maintain rates higher for longer. AUD/USD advanced for a fifth consecutive day, faces critical resistance at 0.6610. The AUD/USD pair peaked on Tuesday at 0.6578, the highest in three weeks early in the American session. The pair retreated afterwards towards the 0.6550 region, where it stands ahead of the Asian opening, posting gains for the fifth consecutive day. The focus was on central banks at the beginning of the day, as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) lowered the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.95%. The LPR is a crucial reference lending rate for mortgages and was trimmed by the most on record. Nevertheless, Chinese stocks edged lower as the rate cut fell short of boosting demand. Also, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the Minutes of its February monetary policy meeting. The document showed the Board considered either the case to hike by 25 bps or to hold steady, deciding on the latter. Policymakers also agreed it was not to rule out another rise in rates, despite adding that the latest data increased the Board's confidence inflation will return to target in a reasonable time frame. Meanwhile the US Dollar suffered from increasing speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) will further delay a rate cut. Market players now believe the central bank has more chances to take action in the June meeting rather than in the May one. By the end of the day, speculative interest took some profits out of the table, providing near-term support to the USD that anyway seems poised to extend its slump- AUD/USD short-term technical outlook From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the AUD/USD pair supports additional gains, particularly if the pair holds above 0.6542, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.6871/0.6442 slump. In the mentioned time frame, technical indicators maintain bullish slopes, although within neutral levels, falling short of confirming an upcoming rally. At the same time, the pair stands above converging 20 and 100 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) but met sellers after briefly surpassing a flat 200 SMA. The 4-hour chart shows a mildly bearish 200 SMA capped the upside around the daily high, while AUD/USD trades above a bullish 20 SMA, which advanced above the 100 SMA. At the same time, technical indicators remain within positive levels, aiming to regain the upside after correcting overbought conditions. The bullish case should strengthen on a break above 0.6610, the 38.2% retracement of the aforementioned daily slump. Support levels: 0.6545 0.6500 0.6465   Resistance levels: 0.6580 0.6610 0.6650

XAU/USD Current price: $2,026.93 Odds for a Federal Reserve May rate cut continue to decrease, weighing down sentiment. The US Dollar eases alongside government bond yields, Wall Street trades with a soft tone. XAU/USD consolidates gains near $2,030, buyers may push further up. Spot Gold extends its upward route on Tuesday, posting gains for a fourth consecutive day. XAU/USD trades around $2,030, its highest in over a week. The US Dollar suffers from mounting speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates higher for longer, as officials have been anticipating. Investors bet against the Fed amid signs of a resilient United States (US) economy, but policymakers never stopped warning against such bets. The CME Group FedWatch Tool now shows market players are moving their bets towards June. The odds for a 25 basis points (bps) March rate cut had decreased to 34.4%, while June ones increased to 55.1%. The US Dollar is not the only one on the back foot. Wall Street also trades in the red, although losses remain contained amid earnings reports partially offsetting the dismal mood. Finally, it is worth adding government bond yields recovered ground, with lower yields adding to the broad USD weakness. XAU/USD short-term technical outlook The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows an increased bullish potential. The bright metal is trading above its 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time in over a week. At the same time, the longer moving averages gain upward traction far below the current level, with the 100 SMA providing dynamic support at around $1,995.35. Finally, the Momentum indicator remains directionless, just below its 100 level, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator maintains its bullish slope at around 51, skewing the risk to the upside. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD lost momentum but holds on to gains, limiting the risk of a steeper slide. The 20 SMA heads firmly north, far below the current level, reflecting the ongoing momentum,  while the longer moving averages remain directionless. XAU/USD hovers around a flat 200 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, eased from near overbought readings, reflecting the ongoing retracement rather than suggesting an upcoming leg south. Support levels: 2,011.40 1,995.35 1,976.50 Resistance levels: 2,032.50 2,045.20 2,064.90 

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0804 Market players await a fresh directional catalyst after central banks' frenzy. A scarce macroeconomic calendar adds to the absence of fresh clues. EUR/USD struggles to extend gains beyond 1.0800 but bulls not giving up. The EUR/USD pair reached a fresh three-week high of 1.0809 mid-European session, as the US Dollar retained its broad weakness. Demand for the Euro, however, remains subdued, with the pair still confined to a well-limited intraday range. Speculative interest struggles to find directional clues after understanding central banks will take time to loosen the monetary policy. Global policymakers have entered a wait-and-see stance regarding monetary policy, although the reasons behind the decisions differ. On the one hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) paused tightening amid increased recessionary risks. The latest macroeconomic data somehow confirms the downturn in the Eurozone is still far from over. The ECB should hike rates further, but the economy won't stand it. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve (Fed) also stayed pat amid concerns that excessive tightening could affect growth. The big difference is that the United States' (US) economy proved to be in much better shape than the EU's, giving the Fed more time to assess its latest measures without risking economic progress. At the end of the day, both central banks did a good job cooling the market's expectations, leaving speculative interest clueless about the next significant catalyst. A strong US labor market and an uptick in the country's inflation in January surely add to the overall uncertainty. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic calendar has little to offer on Tuesday. The EU released the December Current Account, which posted a seasonally adjusted surplus of €31.9 billion, improving from the previous €22.5 billion. Additionally, Construction Output in the same period rose 0.8% MoM, up from 0.4% in November. The US will publish minor figures, including the Redbook Index and weekly crude oil stocks data. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows buying interest reappeared, but it is still tepid. Technical indicators in the daily chart aim north but remain below their midlines and need to surpass them with momentum to confirm another leg north. At the same time, the pair is battling to overcome the 20 and 100 SMAs, both converging around the 1.0795 level. Finally, a flat 200 SMA provides resistance at around 1.0825. The 4-hour chart shows buyers defend the downside around a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at around 1.0770, while EUR/USD extended its advance above a still bearish 100 SMA. Technical indicators aim higher within positive levels, partially losing their early strength but still heading north. Bulls will likely insist if the pair breaches the aforementioned 1.0825 level, aiming to extend the rally towards the 1.0860 area. Support levels: 1.0770 1.0740 1.0695   Resistance levels: 1.0825 1.0860 1.0905 

The decline in negotiated wage growth from 4.7 to 4.5% year-on-year confirms expectations that wage growth is no longer accelerating. But it is too small to open the door to an ECB rate cut in March. With wage growth expected to trend down carefully from here, we expect modest ECB cuts starting in June. Wage growth is the number one worry for the ECB at the moment, as has been stressed by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde time and again in recent speeches. While we anticipate that wage growth will moderate significantly over the course of 2024 on the back of abated inflation and weakened economic conditions, it must come as a relief in Frankfurt that negotiated wage growth fell from 4.7 to 4.5% in the fourth quarter. Sure, it's only a small tick down, but broadly in line with expectations that negotiated wage growth will start to trend down over the course of 2024. That also follows from the ECB's own wage tracker, which monitors wage growth agreed in collective bargaining agreements for the 12 months ahead. This has plateaued for some time now and most recent agreements have trended lower. We expect to see a more meaningful decline in nominal wage growth before the summer. Other measures of wage growth have already cautiously started to move down earlier, but negotiated wages make up the bulk of wage developments in the eurozone. Still, the fourth quarter drop is a small decline and therefore we don't expect the ECB to be particularly hasty in deciding on first-rate cuts. The June meeting – after another quarter of wage data is released – looks like a good moment for a first 0.25% rate cut to us. While nominal wage growth declined, today's release did mark the first quarter of real wage growth (so wage growth – inflation) since the start of the energy crisis in the eurozone. The deep fall of real wages has therefore only just bottomed out and for now, the rebound is not expected to be particularly strong. The expected declining trend of nominal wage growth over the course of 2024 makes the upside to consumption rather limited. Yet, elevated nominal wage growth does add to cost pressures for businesses and if recovering purchasing power leads to continued consumption, then this could result in a slower than hoped-for return to the 2% target for the ECB. While those concerns shouldn't be overdrawn in the current environment of lackluster economic activity, it is an important reason for us to expect the ECB to adjust monetary policy only carefully in 2024. We expect 0.75% of cuts in total for the year. Read the original analysis: Drop in Eurozone negotiated wage growth brings relief to ECB

EUR/USD continues to fluctuate in a narrow channel below 1.0800. The pair could start stretching lower in case risk mood sours. The US economic docket will not offer any high-impact data releases on Tuesday. EUR/USD failed to gather directional momentum and closed the first day of the week virtually unchanged as trading conditions remained thin due to the US Presidents' Day holiday. The pair continues to move sideways below 1.0800 early Tuesday.

Amidst a backdrop of rising risk appetite in the financial markets, last week witnessed record highs across major indices worldwide, despite looming concerns over potential inflation resurgence in the US. As global bond yields surged and Bitcoin reached two-year highs, investors grappled with evolving dynamics. This week, key events and themes are poised to shape market sentiment and asset trajectories. From Nvidia's pivotal earnings report to the release of critical PMI surveys, investors brace for a week of significant developments that will undoubtedly influence trading decisions and market trends. Highlights: Nvidia's earnings: A crucial test for bulls Thursday's PMI surveys: Gauge of economic momentum Technical trends and currency pairs 1. Nvidia's earnings: A crucial test for bulls The semiconductor behemoth Nvidia, whose market cap surpassed tech giants Alphabet/Google and Amazon last week, stands as a significant focal point. Positioned at the epicenter of the AI revolution, Nvidia trades at a substantial multiple, reflecting elevated market optimism. However, the continuation of its robust growth trajectory remains pivotal for sustaining investor enthusiasm. Traders eagerly await Nvidia's earnings report, with expectations set at $4.18 for EPS and $20.4B for revenue. Beyond financial metrics, attention will be keenly directed towards the company's guidance and outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. Notably, the implied volatility on NVDA options suggests anticipation of a significant move, with investors bracing for a potential +/- 11% swing in response to earnings. Such volatility underscores the importance of Nvidia's performance in shaping market sentiment, especially given recent strong results from industry peers like AMD, SMCI, and TSMC. Earnings per share: Source: www.nasdaq.com/ 2. Thursday's PMI surveys: Gauge of economic momentum US PMI: As reported by Institute for Supply Management, in January 2024, the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US rose to 49.1, its highest since October 2022, up from December's 47.1, exceeding the expected 47. Despite ongoing sector contraction, demand improved moderately, with stable output and favorable input conditions. Source: tradingeconomics.com UK PMI: The S&P Global reported that UK Manufacturing PMI for January 2024 was adjusted downward to 47, a decrease from the initial projection of 47.3. Both output and new orders sustained declines, leading to increased layoffs and diminished procurement and inventory levels. Manufacturers encountered supply chain difficulties stemming from the Red Sea crisis, necessitating the redirection of input shipments away from the Suez Canal. Despite these challenges, the situation in the manufacturing sector persisted. What about this week? Thursday's release of PMI surveys from the US, UK, and Eurozone emerges as a pivotal event for traders seeking insights into current economic dynamics. Widely regarded as leading indicators of on-the-ground economic activity, these surveys offer crucial guidance on whether January's momentum has translated into sustained growth in February. With market participants actively pricing out expectations of interest rate cuts by major central banks since the year's outset, the significance of robust PMI data cannot be overstated. A continuation of strong survey results may serve to forestall near-term bearish reversals, bolstering investor confidence in the resilience of economic recovery efforts amidst lingering uncertainties. United Kingdom Manufacturing PMI Forecast. Source: tradingeconomics.com The week ahead presents a confluence of events and themes that will likely shape market sentiment and asset trajectories. From Nvidia's earnings to the release of PMI surveys, investors remain vigilant amid evolving economic landscapes and shifting risk dynamics. As traders navigate these challenges, attention to key indicators and developments will be paramount in identifying emerging opportunities and mitigating potential risks. 3. Market analysis: Technical trends and currency pairs US Dollar Index The US Dollar Index revealed a candlestick that closed higher than its open last week, hinting at bullish activity. However, the formation of an outside bar and a bearish pin bar introduced uncertainty regarding its direction. Despite this, the weekly close exhibited a slight uptick compared to prices from 3 and 6 months ago, suggesting the potential emergence of a bullish long-term trend. Source: TradingView Transition: Nonetheless, caution prevails due to the absence of clear bullish momentum in the price action. NASDAQ 100 Index The NASDAQ 100 Index faced a decline last week following its initial surge to a new record high. Its closing price settled at the week's lowest point, indicating prevailing bearish sentiment. However, the overarching bullish trend in US stocks implies that this downturn may present a favorable buying opportunity. Source: TradingView Transition: Despite the ongoing retracement, the enduring bullish momentum in stocks is anticipated to endure. S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 Index concluded slightly lower last week post achieving a fresh record high early on. While it outperformed the NASDAQ 100, showcasing relative strength in non-technology stocks, it remains under some downward pressure. Source: TradingView Transition: Nonetheless, historical data and prevailing market conditions lend support to a bullish outlook for the S&P 500. Bitcoin Bitcoin recently witnessed a robust bullish breakout,...

Gold price pauses its three-day recovery rally amid cautious markets early Tuesday US Dollar ticks higher with US Treasury bond yields, as investors keep cheering bets of fewer Fed rate cuts.  Gold sellers return after facing rejection at the 21-day SMA near $2,025. RSI surrenders the 50 level.   Gold price is trading on the back foot below $2,020 early Tuesday, following a positive start to the week and logging a three-day recovery rally. The Gold price upside seems likely capped by a renewed uptick in the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields, as markets brace for a return of the American traders. Gold price looks to Wednesday's Fed Minutes for fresh impetus Risk sentiment remains in a weak spot so far this Tuesday, as investors fail to cheer a bigger-than-expected Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). The Chinese central bank left the one-year LPR unchanged but lowered the five-year mortgage lending rate by a record 25 basis points (bps) from 4.20% to 3.95%. However, a lack of fiscal policy support measures from China leaves markets unimpressed. Traders also digest the recent fading expectations of early and aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, in the face of the previous week's hot US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Markets began this year by pricing six Fed rate cuts, now expecting only three. Markets are currently pricing a 76% chance of a cut in June, according to the CME Group's Fed Watch Tool. A March Fed rate cut is almost fully priced out. A downbeat mood combined with delayed Fed rate cut bets continue to support the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar at the expense of the non-yielding Gold price. Gold price now looks forward to Wednesday's Fed Minutes and US S&P Global business PMI data on Thursday, in the absence of any high-impact US economic data releases on Tuesday. Also, of note remains the earnings result from the American tech-giant Nvidia on Wednesday, as it could have a significant impact on the market sentiment. In the meantime, some appearances from the Fed officials could help markets reverberate expectations of a delayed Fed policy pivot, influencing the value of the US Dollar and the Gold price. Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart Gold price faced rejection at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $2,023, on a daily closing basis, reviving the selling interest. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) snapped its recovery mode and fell back below the midline, suggesting that a pullback toward the $2,000 threshold could be in the offing. That level could offer a strong support, as the upward-pointing 100-day SMA aligns there.   However, Gold sellers need to crack the previous day's low of $2,011 before testing rising trendline support at $2,005 and the 100-day SMA at $2,000. On the upsid, the immediate resistance at the 21-day SMA of $2,023 needs to be taken out in order to resume the recovery toward the 50-day SMA of $2,033. Acceptance above that level will create fresh buying opportunities in Gold price, targeting the February 7 high of $2,044 and the $2,050 psychological barrier.