The much hotter-than-expected CPI does not offer much in the way of pleasant news for equity markets, with 10-year Treasury yields topping 4 %. The second-round effects of inflation are clearly being felt across the economy. While the Fed remains on autopilot for a 75bp hike in November, investors will need to think more seriously about 75bp in December. If The FOMC minutes indicated a data-dependent Fed that requires a high hurdle to pause its rate-hiking cycle, that hurdle got immeasurably higher. The strong CPI only reinforces the view that there is no way the Federal Reserve can contemplate a 'pivot' this year. For the dollar, USD long fatigue was starting to emerge, but the USD higher is still the path of least resistance. Synchronized global growth is the best USD-lower environment, but that is nowhere to be seen. Other catalysts, such as China ending zero-covid or easing European energy fears, also look well beyond the horizon, as is the Fed. pivot. The topside CPI beat adds further persuasion to short the Yen. How quickly USDJPY can get to the Y150 will be partly determined by a materializing bond market engagement to see if the US 10y yield can finally settle above 4%.

The Retail Sales Control Group is foreseen at 0.3% in September after the previous miss. Core Retail Sales are set to drop by 0.1%, as high inflation digs a hole in consumers’ pockets. Only upside surprises in the headline and Core figures could revive the US dollar uptrend. Amidst the continued drop in gasoline prices, easing inflation expectations and improvement in American consumers’ confidence, yet another rise in US Retail Sales may not come as a surprise for the month of September. The more precise gauge, the Control Group is expected to show an increase, which could have a significant impact on the US dollar trades. The US Census Bureau will publish the data on October 14 at 12:30 GMT. The US consumer spending, as represented by Retail Sales, is expected to rise by 0.2% MoM in September after recording an unexpected increase of 0.3% in August. The July Retail Volume was revised lower to a 0.4% decline. Meanwhile, the Retail Sales Control Group (ex-food services, autos, gas, building materials) for September is seen higher at 0.3% versus August’s 0%. The core Retail Sales (ex-Autos) are likely to decline by 0.1% MoM in the reported month vs. -0.3% reported previously. Note that the figures aren’t adjusted for inflation. In August, American shoppers showed resilience despite a four-decade high inflation rate, as a majority of retail categories grew last month, as cheaper fuel prices allowed Americans to spend on food, motor vehicles and other discretionary purchases such as building materials and garden equipment. Trading the US dollar with Retail Sales A below-forecast reading for the Control Group cannot be ruled out after the previous miss. The headline print, however, could grab more attention again if it surprises the upside this time as well. For the US dollar to regain the upside traction, the Core figures also need to show an unexpected increase. The data is unadjusted for inflation and, therefore, only the above estimates readings would represent real growth in sales. If the Core Retail Sales print below estimates or even matches the forecasts, it could imply that consumers are feeling the pinch of widespread inflation notwithstanding some relief from falling prices at the gas station. It could weigh on the dollar temporarily, as expectations of steeper Fed rate hikes to tame inflation will overpower and keep the dollar bulls afloat.   It’s worth noting that the US dollar’s reaction to the Retail Sales release could be influenced by the persisting risk trend and Fed rate hike expectations, as the data succeeds the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) release due on Thursday. The US inflation is the most critical gauge and will determine the size of the November Fed rate hike, especially after Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. The minutes showed that the Fed members “expect higher borrowing costs to slow economic activity by curbing spending, hiring and investment, which should weaken inflation pressures.” At the moment, markets are pricing an 81% probability of a 75 bps Fed rate rise next month. To conclude, Friday’s US Retail Sales and University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment data will be also closely scrutinized, as they will shed additional light on household trends amid rising interest rates and the ongoing cost of living squeeze.

Equities fall sharply on Friday as the jobs market remains strong. Equities still closed higher on a volatile week, while Monday, Tuesday saw massive gains. Oil prices spike as OPEC+ cuts supply, all eyes now on CPI data. Another week of huge volatility for financial markets was met with a certain resignation on Friday. Early indications for the week were positive with a massive two-day rally to set things off as the Fed pivot talk once again took centre stage. This saw a massive 6%-plus, two-day rally for most of the main indices before some flatlining ahead of Friday's jobs report. The hope was for a weak number to continue the Fed pivot hopes. However, what we got instead were more signs of a strong labour market that will need to take a few more interest rate hits before it falls to the canvass. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, while the payrolls number showed gains of 263K, just below the 270K consensus. This reinforced the hawkish comments from Fed officials, which markets had ignored earlier in the week. Bond yields once again spiked with the 2-year closing at a yield of 4.3% and the 10-year just shy of 3.9%. Fed funds futures markets priced the near certainty of another 75bps hike in November, and as a result equities sold off aggressively. Despite all the doom and gloom the S&P 500 (SPX) actually gained 1.6%. Energy was back on its throne as the biggest winner. OPEC+ announced a 2 million barrel per day oil supply cut that sent crude oil prices spiking higher midweek toward $90. This will also not help the Fed pivot hopes. Energy (XLE) rose over 13% on the week, while the continued rate hikes meant real estate (XLRE) was the worst-performing sector on the week.  We now turn our attention to the week ahead with two key events, one micro and one macro. First, it is earnings season. Investors have been nervously anticipating this one for a while now, and as ever the banking sector is first up. We do have to question how much bad earnings news is priced in given the mess we have already seen from FedEx (FDX) and Nike (NKE) to name a few. Apple (AAPL) will be the key as in a proper full-on capitulation the leaders are the last ones to topple. If we are indeed about to capitulate, then AAPL will need to move seriously lower. On the macro front, it is all about Thursday's CPI. Another hot number would lead to curtains for the stock market. The spike in oil will not have an effect this time out, so hopes are growing for a calming number. Again though, how much is priced in?  We notice the conditions for a counter-trend rally are higher than we would have expected. A number of factors support the theory. First, earnings season has arrived as mentioned. Analysts have lowered the bar with forecast downgrades, and investors largely expect a bad season. We had a similar situation in Q2, and the worst fears were not realized. Perhaps this will be more of the same. Second, positions and sentiment are again maximum bearish.  Source: CNN.com Meanwhile, the American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey is also near max bearish. Hedge funds are overly shot and could be squeezed. CTA trend-following systems are near maxed out also and will run to longs in a big way if the rally picks up. We are also close to the max period for corporate buybacks, which will soon begin to pick up again.

US BLS will release the September CPI figures on October 13. Markets expect core inflation to rise 0.5% on a monthly basis in September. Markets are pricing in an 80% probability of a 75 basis points Fed rate hike next month. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for September on Thursday, October 13. Although the Fed uses the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data as its preferred gauge of inflation, market participants are likely to react more significantly to the CPI data simply because it's published two weeks before the PCE. Additionally, the CPI is widely seen as a better measure of what consumers observe with regard to changes in prices. Investors expect the headline annual CPI to decline to 8.1% from 8.3% in August. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen edging higher to 6.5% from 6.3% in the same period. On a monthly basis, the CPI and the Core CPI are expected to arrive at 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. Since the monthly figures are not distorted by the base effects, they are likely to paint a more accurate picture of core inflation. Previous Core CPI (MoM) releases  It's worth noting that the September jobs report showed that Nonfarm Payrolls rose at a stronger pace than expected in September and that the Unemployment Rate declined to 3.5% from 3.7%, allowing the Fed to stay focused on battling inflation.  Market implications When the data for August showed that the Core CPI rose by 0.6%, compared to the market expectation of 0.3%, the probability of a 75 basis points rate hike in September rose sharply and the US Dollar Index (DXY) gained 1.5% on a daily basis. Currently, the CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a nearly-80% probability of one more 75 bps rate hike in November. Hence, the dollar's potential gains on a stronger-than-expected monthly core CPI reading are likely to remain limited. Also, following August's surprise, investors seem to have already prepared for a strong inflation report by forecasting a 0.6% monthly increase. At this point, only a monthly increase of between 0.8% and 1% in Core CPI could be significant enough for market participants to start considering the possibility of a 100 bps rate hike in November and trigger a fresh rally in the US Dollar Index. Source: CME Group On the other hand, a soft inflation report with the monthly Core CPI coming in much lower than analysts' estimate, between 0.2% and 0.4%, could open the door for a risk rally. In that case, Wall Street's main indexes could post impressive gains and the USD is likely to suffer heavy losses against its major rivals in the short term. Nevertheless, unless there is a negative Core CPI print, investors are unlikely to scale back 75 bps hike bets, helping the dollar hold its ground after the initial reaction. FOMC policymakers made it clear that they will not overreact to one-off inflation data and that they will stay on the tightening path until they are convinced inflation is falling steadily.  Finally, in case CPI figures come in largely in line with analysts' projections, the DXY is likely to return to pre-release levels once the dust settles following the knee-jerk market reaction.

Stock investors are a bit on edge ahead of upcoming critical inflation data and the start of Q3 earnings season. Fed pivot Bulls are hoping the Producer Price Index on Wednesday and Consumer Price Index on Thursday will confirm their belief that inflation has "peaked" which in turn could spark another rally as investors return to bet on the Fed backing off its tightening program. A so-called "Fed pivot" has been anticipated and rallied upon multiple times this year already, only to be dashed by continued strong inflationary data and tough talk from Fed officials. Economists say that interest rate hikes can take 6 months or more to filter through the economy and impact inflation, so the worry remains that the Fed goes too far, too fast and ends up "breaking" something. Warnings about a potential recession continue to circulate with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon the latest to forecast a recession in 2023 that could be compounded by the Fed's aggressive rate hikes and Russia's war in Ukraine. Of course Russia's war has roiled energy, grain, and other commodity markets, which in turn have kept upward pressure on inflation. Food supplies Keep in mind, global food supplies have even bigger problems than just Russia and Ukraine, with severe droughts and extreme flooding taking a toll on nearly every continent. The Fed has no ability to control commodity supplies or prices but they also can't keep lifting rates indefinitely. Due to the dysfunction already witnessed in some financial markets as well as signs that the US economy is slowing down, many bulls still believe the Fed will, at the very least, go for smaller rate hikes starting in November or December. Money supply For those that believe inflation is more of a money supply problem - aka due to a massive increase in the amount of money in the financial system - it's worth noting that the Fed stopped contributing to that in March when it made its final asset purchases as part of "quantitative easing." The central bank is now essentially removing money from the system via "quantitative tightening" as it allows mature bonds to roll off its balance sheet. Additionally, you could count the Fed's rate increases, which also began in March, as a money supply-reducer as it hinders borrowing. Economists also say it takes around 6 to 18 months for reductions in the money supply to impact inflation. However, it is still not clear what the Fed would consider a "clear sign" that inflation is on the retreat. Data to watch Investors hope the "minutes" from the Fed's last meeting, which are due out on Wednesday, might provide some additional clues on that front. Today, investors won't really get any new data to chew on besides the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. There also aren't any notable US earnings on tap, although investors are growing a bit more nervous that the forward guidance could further dampen the outlook for the quarters ahead, especially as the US dollar remains stubbornly strong. That in turn could burst the bulls' hopes to regain lost ground off the back of better-than-expected Q3 results.

US stocks tanked at the end of last week, after the stronger than expected US NFP report for September reinforced the Federal Reserve’s hike-and-hold path for interest rates, which are pushing up recession risks for the US and the global economy. The Conference Board now predicts a 96% chance of a recession in the US within the next 12 months.  While US GDP has already registered a technical recession, The Conference Board’s measure is more accurate. Right now, it predicts that the US economy will experience a recession in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. The question now is, when will the US economy climb out of recession? We will be watching the The Conference Board recession probability model closely, as it is also good at predicting the end of recessions when it falls rapidly, usually one or two months before the economy starts to pick up. Thus, watch chart 1 closely in the coming months to determine the turning point for the US economy. Economic and corporate data this week will be important in helping us to figure out just how bad this recession will be. US CPI on Tuesday and the start of Q3 earnings season in the US are worth watching closely.      Dollar headwinds start to cause problems  Looking at earnings season first, analysts are expecting a feeble set of results, with $34bn slashed from earnings estimates over the last 3 months. Analysts now expect S&P 500 companies to post earnings per share growth of 2.6% in the three months to September, at the start of July analysts had been looking for a bounce back for earnings, with 10% growth expected. Thus, this is the largest cut to earnings since the pandemic. A perfect storm of higher interest rates, weak consumer sentiment and stubbornly high inflation have darkened the outlook for this earnings season. This has been reflected in stock market performance in recent months, with stocks tanking again at the end of last week. Earnings season is likely to be closely watched and could trigger bouts of volatility.    The FX problem for US blue chips  FactSet, the data gathering company, has noted that 50% of companies that have already reported Q3 earnings, about 4% of companies on the S&P 500, have cited unfavourable foreign exchange rates as having a negative impact on their earnings. This is a far higher percentage than last year at the same point in the earnings season and concerns about the strong dollar have been steadily growing in the last four quarters. Of all the factors analysed by FactSet so far in Q3 earnings season, only higher interest rates have triggered a larger quarter-over-quarter increase in negative citations so far. Given that the dollar has been rising strongly, and that 40% of S&P 500 companies have significant overseas earnings exposure, it is no wonder that FX rates are a concern. This will be worth watching over the rest of earnings season, and we expect to see more companies complain about the strong dollar, especially after momentum in the US dollar has ramped up significantly in recent months.    A bright side for Q3 earnings season?  While there are notable headwinds for the S&P 500 and global blue chips as they report Q3 earnings, it is possible that we could see some upside surprises. Despite analysts revising down their estimates for Q3 EPS growth, companies have been more positive in their earnings guidance for Q3 relative to recent quarters. What does this mean? Of the 106 companies that have issued forward guidance for Q3, 65 have issued negative guidance and 41 have issued positive guidance.  This is above both the 5- and 10-year averages. Companies in the real estate, industrials and consumer discretionary sectors have recorded the largest increases in positive EPS guidance for Q3. In terms of the market reaction, FactSet have found that the market is punishing S&P 500 companies who issue negative guidance by a bigger margin than average, while they are rewarding companies that issue positive guidance, with companies’ stock prices rising 3.1% in the days after the positive guidance was issued. The market is extremely sensitive right now, so it will be watching out for guidance for Q4 earnings and beyond. However, if companies surprise on the upside during Q3 earnings season, then we may see a bounce back in stock prices in the coming weeks.    US economy: Sticky inflation back at 1990 levels  The market is laser focussed on Federal Reserve monetary policy right now and US stock markets are mostly lower on Monday, with volatility having jumped at the start of the week. A key theme for markets right now, is the prospect of dovish pivot from the Fed. Hopes were dashed on Friday, when the US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. Fed speakers are...

Gold is back under pressure as the bulls keep buying up the US dollar. The NFP data will keep the Fed on the back foot in the battle against inflation. Gold could be destined for a significant drop in the coming days in US CPI. The gold price drifted lower into the close on Friday due to some of the bad news for the Federal Reserve that was revealed in the Nonfarm Payrolls report for the month of September with the Unemployment Rate, moving down to historically-low levels. This goes against their battle to restore demand-supply-side balance in the labour market in the face of inflation, meaning that strong rate hikes are a given for the foreseeable future and this is a headwind for gold prices vs. a flattening curve. This will make for another critical week for the days ahead with plenty of US calendar events, including the minutes f the prior Fed meeting, US inflation data and Retail Sales. We will open in Asia with the US dollar some 55 pips, or 0.5% higher than last week, as measured by the DXY index. The gold price starts out down 1% on Friday's business and  2% up on last week's open, leaving scope for a continued bearish correction in a strong US dollar environment as the following analysis illustrates: Gold daily charts The following are of the same daily chart but zoomed in:   As illustrated in the above charts, the price is correcting the dominant bearish trend and has slid outside of the prior, late August, dynamic trendline resistance. The harmonic crab pattern is bullish while the price remains in corrective territories above the recent lows of $1,614 and $1,659 daily lows.  However, as the last illustration in the series of daily charts above shows, the price is meeting resistance around $1,730 and is in the process of correcting towards an area of price imbalance between Friday's lows of $1,690 and $1,675, the latter which is close to a 50% mean reversion of the daily bullish impulse. This is a critical area of interest for the week ahead that guards a move towards the restest of the dominant counter trendline and the aforementioned recent daily lows.  Gold H1 chart The hourly chart shows that the price is well on its way towards the said price imbalance as it starts to move out of the area of consolidation and support below the counter-trendline, as shown in the chart above. If the US dollar bulls move in at the start of the week, then there could be a quick move into mitigating the price imbalance resulting in a move-in on last week's high of $1,675 and the support thereabout to $1,659 daily lows.  Gold M15 charts Zooming down to other 15-min charts, we have a potential meanwhile bullish scenario with the price moving beyond a meanwhile trendline resistance, although the dominant hourly trendline would be expected to cap bullish attempts below or slightly through $1,700 in the opening sessions of the week.  US dollar H4 chart The US dollar broke above last week's lows of around 112.75 which is a bullish feature for the week ahead that leaves 114.00 on the radar as long as 111.95/55 holds:  We have seen a 62% retracement in the September rally and an attempt to move higher again on the front side of a dynamic supporting trendline that is yet to give. There is a price imbalance in the grey area around 114.00 that the bulls can target for the week ahead into the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Analysts at TD Securities argued that the ''NFP should be broadly neutral for the USD at this time, and should defer market focus to the upcoming CPI report to stake a deeper claim in the near-term direction. We are wary that a move above 145 in USDJPY will compel FX intervention, which could be more likely given upcoming CPI (especially if stronger). That could introduce temporary USD drag. Nonetheless, the USD remains best in class, and we look to accumulate on dips.''

Markets are still digesting the repercussions of the Chancellor's "mini-budget". In the latest move, the BOE increased the amount of authorized buybacks through TECRF facility. That's the intervention launched to shore up the pound in the wake of the announcement of financial reforms. Despite a rebound in the later part of September, cable has resumed its longer-term downward trend against the dollar. However, that has been aided in large part by the unexpected drop in the US unemployment rate, which increased the bets that the Fed would raise rates by 75bps at its next meeting. Now, the main concern surrounding the budget appears to be the uncertainty. In that situation, the market often assumes the worst. As presented, the budget appears to increase spending (which is pro-inflationary), while reducing taxes (which questions the financial stability of the government). The combined response is to expect the BOE to hike rates more aggressively to fend off the expected increase in inflation. Bringing things back to reality Depending on how the "mini-budget" is financed, however, it could allay many of those concerns. The problem is that the key "detail" won't be available until the end of November, and the BOE will have to decide at their next meeting before that. It also opens questions of just how well planned this plan was, since the long wait is ostensibly to figure out where to get the financing for the spending. It doesn't inspire confidence that the government is issuing a plan to increase spending and cut taxes without having first ironed out where the financing for that will come from. In the meantime, there is rampant speculation that the government will cut government expenditures on a wide range of services, from pensions to government employment. That makes investors nervous, and likely would lead to even less popularity of an already unpopular government. The Labour Party, already leading in the polls, would be expected to radically change the financial situation. Getting the data in hand Government spending is included in GDP measures, meaning that if one of the ways to balance the budget is to reduce government outlays, it would put downward pressure on the leading measure of economic growth. Last quarter GDP was revised in the final reading to be barely positive at 0.2%, from a flash reading of -0.1%. On Wednesday, the UK reports August GDP, which is expected to come in at -0.1% compared to +0.2% in July. The BOE has warned that a recession is coming, and now traders are focused on the September data to see if Q3 will be the start of that. Employment figures On Tuesday, the UK will release September Claimant Count numbers, which are expected to show a relatively modest increase to 10K from 6.6K. Remember that the higher the number, the more negative it is for the markets, since it accounts for the number of people seeing unemployment assistance. The total employed figure from the rolling three months to July is also released at the same time, but is unlikely to move the markets despite a surprising forecast. The expected significant drop in employment is due to a technicality, of the unusually high number in April rolling off.

Historically, the final quarter has always been considered to be one of the most lucrative periods of the year for commodity traders – And once again, that trend, is certainly living up to expectations! It's no secret that the global markets have entered an exciting new phase in monetary policy as central bankers across the world ramped up their fight against rapidly surging inflation. After being criticized for being slow to recognize inflation, the Federal Reserve and its central-banking peers have embarked on their most aggressive series of rate hikes since the 1980s. As a result, aggressive moves specifically from the Fed in recent months have dramatically strengthened the dollar – raising concerns among leading economists that the U.S currency will be the next asset bubble to burst. According to Morgan Stanley – "such U.S dollar strength has historically always ended in some kind of financial or economic crisis" and that's the exact direction we are heading in again. In recent weeks, a long list of Wall Street banks and international organization from the United Nations, World Bank and IMF have warned that an overly aggressive Fed tightening policy, combined with a surging U.S dollar – "risks breaking the financial markets and inflicting worse damage globally than the financial crisis in 2008 and the Covid-19 shock in 2020". Growing backlash against the Fed comes at a pivotal moment – following a significant move from The Bank of England, who was forced to revert to back to unprecedented "Quantitative Easing" measures, in an emergency attempt to avert a full-blown global financial meltdown. The Bank of England's monetary policy U-turn sent over 27 Commodities ranging from the metals, energies to soft commodities skyrocketing to multi-month highs – with many notching up impressive double-digit gains in a matter of days. The Bank of England's actions represent the first big intervention from a G7 central bank in this monetary cycle to avert a global financial crisis – And it may not be the last! There can be no denying that the explosive combination of excessive fiscal debt, speculative asset bubbles and persistent inflation makes the current economic environment truly precarious. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is facing one of the worst predicaments of its existence as it continues hiking rates aggressively into a weakening economy. Whichever way you look at it, the writing is already on the wall. Sooner or later the Fed will have no other option, but to turn back on its money-printing presses and inject massive liquidity into an already inflationary environment. The big question now is will the Fed raise rates one more time this year, before reverting back to quantitative easing again? Only time will tell, however, the one thing we do know is that extraordinary times create extraordinary opportunities and right now, as traders we are amidst "one of the greatest wealth transfers ever in history". The time to start making money is now! Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:  

Selling has continued in European and US markets today, although at a less frenetic pace than we saw last week, says Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG. Subdued move prevails across markets “The impact of Friday’s payroll report and its implications for Fed policy and the economic outlook continue to loom large over markets. While Friday’s knee-jerk move was perhaps an overreaction in the near-term, the overall outlook remains highly unfavourable to equities. Even the prospect of earnings season provides little comfort, since Q3 numbers are likely to be uninspiring while Q4 guidance will be cautious at best.” Stronger dollar cushions European markets “European stocks did better this morning, thanks perhaps in large part to the weaker pound and euro. But the fresh outrages in Kyiv are another reminder that European markets face an even tougher winter than those in the US, despite the massive support being provided by governments. The bounce is already fizzling out, with more pain for European stocks ahead this quarter.”

In the red are now the relations between the world's largest energy poles, after reducing the daily oil production by 2 million barrels as OPEC decided, adding a new ‘’headache’’ to Europe's energy security. That decision surprised all the analysts who expected a reduction of 1 million barrels. Simultaneously, with the prices of natural gas being very expensive due to Russia’s pipelines, they took advantage to sell their liquified natural gas. OPEC decided in its first one-on-one meeting since 2020 to cut production by up to 2 million barrels per day from November. Oil prices have fallen to around $90 a barrel from $120 in early June, amid growing fears of the prospect of a global economic recession. However, still not knowing how long will it last and with what intensity, predictions are useless for now. On the other side of the Atlantic, the US opposes such a move, as OPEC keeps oil prices high, resulting in inflationary pressures on consumers and production costs. More specifically, President Biden is disappointed by OPEC's short-sighted decision to reduce production quotas while the global economy deals with the continuing negative effects of Putin's invasion of Ukraine. At a time when maintaining global energy, supplies are of the most importance, this decision will have the most negative impact on low- and middle-income countries that are already struggling with high energy prices. President's work has helped lower gas prices in the US. At Biden's direction, the Energy Department will release another 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve into the market next month, continuing the historic releases the President ordered in March. From an Elliot wave perspective, we will examine the Crude Oil chart to see the possible move shortly. Looking at the weekly chart, we see an upward move from $15.98 very strong one. Ideally it’s the V wave that will probably reach $147.02, since we see drop from $139.00 in three waves now at key support with subwave C. A break above the trendline resistance can cause acceleration higher. Get Full Access To Our Premium Analysis For 14 Days. Click here!

EUR/USD - 0.9735 Euro's selloff from 0.9999 (Tue) to as low as 0.9727 Fri after robust US jobs report suggests correction from Sep's 2-decade trough at 0.9537 has possibly ended and as 0.9790 has capped recovery, bearishness remains and a daily close below 0.9713 (61.8% r) would pressure price to 0.9684, then later 0.9636/40. On the upside, only a daily close above 0.9790 would risk stronger retracement towards 0.9816, break, 0.9835 Data to be released later: Australia AIG services services index, Japan market holiday. EU Sentix index. U.S. market holiday, Canada market holiday on Monday.