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Currency markets traded 100 and 200 pips last week and the current week is slated for a repeat performance. Serious underperformers were found in the anchor pairs as EUR/USD traded 90 pips, DXY 69, AUD/USD 87 and 112 pips for GBP/USD. Wide rangers traded an average achievement at 200 pips beginning with GBP/AUD at 217 pips, EUR/AUD at 199 and GBP/NZD at 168.
Market prices remain trading in 100 and 150 pip ranges and bouncing inside vital averages. The anchor pairs are responsible to lead markets by vital average breaks in order to restore expanded ranges and normally traded markets.
Inside most currency prices is pure Noise which means nothing happens to the traded price as it fails to produce trend results and only trades in tiny ranges. Prices desperately require signals and variation.
The only 2 trade options available are short overbought JPY cross pairs as GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY. The second option is enter longs and shorts at vital levels.
GBP/USD for example top line this week and reported every week is located at 1.2788 and 1.2832 at the 5 year average. A short trade prevailed every week for the past 5 weeks at the upper levels.
GBP/USD ranges trade the same 5 week story from 1.2597, 1.2621 Vs 1.2788 and 1.2832 Same for EUR/USD at 1.0895 to 1.1061 and 5 year average at 1.1155.AUD/USD 0.6639 and 0.6778 and NZD/USD 0.6161 t0 0.6293.
USD/JPY lows this week are located at 143.85 and 143.54. Targets are located closer to 143.85.
JPY cross pairs short remains the best trades as GBP/JPY targets 183.51 and EUR/JPY 158.36.
GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD begin the week deeply overbought. EUR/CAD traded 115 pips last week Vs SPX 500 at 102 points.
Oversold CHF cross pairs for the week include AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and CAD/CHF.
Wide rangers GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD trade short this week as well as GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD.
Inflation
Upon last release 6 weeks ago, informed Inflation was oversold. Inflation traveled higher.
The current range is 6.10 to 2.20 and 1.90. Releases are valued at 0.03 which means expect 0.01 and 0.02 announcements. The last release at 3.4 just barely gave us 0.03 instead of the normal 0.01 and 0.02.
Assuming the 2% target trades by the next 7 releases at 6 weeks per announcement then 7 X 6 = 42 weeks. This means the target might achieve 2% by the end of 2024. The BOJ also informs to the same 2% target for Japan Inflation at end 2024. From 2%, Inflation travels higher into 2025.
If the Fed’s goal is cut interest rates when Inflation achieves 2% then we have a long long way for the first drop.
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