Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD trims Friday’s gains as caution reigns

XAU/USD Current price: 2,023.93

• This week, a busy United States calendar and central banks’ announcements stand out.
• Wall Street extends gains on the back of solid earnings reports.
• XAU/USD is technically neutral in the near term, bears dominate the wider view.

Spot Gold changed course after falling to $2,016.42 early in the American session and trades around $2,024, posting modest intraday losses. The US Dollar sees limited demand amid strength in global indexes, with Wall Street extending gains on the back of solid earnings reports and decreasing odds for a rate hike in March.

At the same time, there is a certain quote of caution among market participants as investors await critical first-tier data spread throughout the week. The United States (US) has quite a busy calendar, as the country will release the preliminary estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with the annualized figure expected at 2%, down from 4.9% in Q3.

Later in the week, the US will offer the December Core Personal Consumption Expenditures  (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge. The PCE Price Index is foreseen to be up 0.2% MoM and 3.0% YoY, slightly below November figures.

In the middle, several central banks will report their monetary policy decisions, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled for the next week.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD trimmed Friday’s gains, and the daily chart supports a continued decline. The pair develops below a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the longer moving averages lack directional strength well below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, resumed their declines within negative levels, although their strength is limited.

The 4-hour chart for XAU/USD offers a neutral stance. The pair briefly pierced a flat 20 SMA but quickly recovered above it, suggesting unconvinced sellers. The longer moving averages head marginally lower above the current level, limiting advances. Finally, technical indicators head nowhere around their midlines, failing to provide clear directional clues.

Support levels: 2,016.40 2,001.60 1,988.60  

Resistance levels: 2,033.10 2,047.20 2,056.80