EUR/USD: Daily recommendations on major

EUR/USD – 0.9884

Euro’s rise from Oct’s 0.9632 trough to 0.9875 last Tue suggests further volatile swings above Sep’s 2-decade trough at 0.9537 would continue, Fri’s rally from 0.9705 and then yesterday’s brief break of 0.9875 resistance to 0.9899 has retained daily bullishness but 0.9960 should remain intact.

On the downside, only a daily close below 0.9808 would risk further weakness towards 0.9755.

Data to be released on Tuesday

Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, U.K. CBI trends orders.
U.S. redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

EUR/USD – 0.9735
Euro's selloff from 0.9999 (Tue) to as low as 0.9727 Fri after robust US jobs report suggests correction from Sep's 2-decade trough at 0.9537 has possibly ended and as 0.9790 has capped recovery, bearishness remains and a daily close below 0.9713 (61.8% r) would pressure price to 0.9684, then later 0.9636/40.

On the upside, only a daily close above 0.9790 would risk stronger retracement towards 0.9816, break, 0.9835

Data to be released later:
Australia AIG services services index, Japan market holiday.
EU Sentix index.
U.S. market holiday, Canada market holiday on Monday.

EUR/USD – 0.9790

Euro's selloff yesterday from 0.9926 (Asia) and then break of Wednesday's 0.9835 low (now resistance) to 0.9789 in New York on renewed USD's strength signals decline from Tuesday's near 2-week 0.9999 high to retrace rise from September's 2-decade 0.9537 trough would head towards 0.9713 but 0.9636 should hold.

On the upside, only a daily close above 0.9835 would risk stronger gain to 0.9885/95 before down.

Data to be released on Friday

Japan all household spending, coincident index, leading index, China market holiday.
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany import prices, industrial output, retail sales, U.K. Halifax house prices, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, Canada employment change and unemployment rate.

EUR/USD – 0.9972

Yesterday's impressive rally from 0.9807 (Asia) to as high as 0.9999 in New York due to broad-based USD's weakness on falling U.S. yields and market's risk-on sentiment suggests recent rise from September's 2-decade trough at 0.9837 remains in progress, however, overbought condition would cap price below res at 1.0050 and risk has increased for a retracement to occur.

On the downside, below 0.9900 signals 1st leg of correction is possibly over and brings weakness towards 0.9853, however, reckon 0.9807 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Wednesday

Australia services PMI, Japan Jibun bank services PMI, New Zealand RBNA interest rate decision, China market holiday, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
France industrial output, Italy S n P global services PMI, France S n P global services PMI, Germany S n P global services PMI, EU S n P global services PMI, U.K. S n P global services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, international trade balance, goods trade balance, S n P global services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Canada building permits, trade balance, exports and imports.

EUR/USD – 0.9704

Despite resumption of downtrend to a fresh 20-year trough of 0.9537 (Europe) yesterday, subsequent rally due to selloff in usd in tandem with US yields to 0.9750 in New York signals a temporary low is made, intra-day retreat may head to 0.9640/50, below, 0.9600.

On the upside, only a daily close above 0.9750 would risk stronger retracement towards 0.9775 but 0.9810/13 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Thursday

Italy producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI.
U.S. GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Canada GDP and average weekly earnings.
 

EUR/USD – 0.9598
Euro's weakness to 0.9570 in New York yesterday following a rebound from Monday's fresh 2-decade low of 0.9559 to 0.9701 suggests re-test of 0.9559 would be seen after range trading, break extends downtrend to 0.9520 but loss of momentum may limit weakness to 0.9485.

On the upside, only a daily close above 0.9652 would prolong choppy sideways swings and risk 0.9670, break, 0.9701.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
U.K. BRC shop price index, Australia retail sales, Japan coincident index, leading index, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, industrial sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and pending home sales.

EUR/USD – 0.9976

Despite extending erratic rise from last Tuesday's 20-year bottom at 0.9865 to a 3-week high of 1.0197 on Monday, Tuesday's selloff on hot US CPI to 0.9956 (AUS) yesterday suggests correction over, as 1.0023 has capped recovery, weakness to 0.9930/32 is envisaged but 0.9865 should hold.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0033/43 would risk stronger gain to 1.0071/76.

Data to be released on Thursday

New Zealand GDP, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, tertiary industry activities, Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
Germany wholesale price index, France CPI, EU trade balance, labor costs.
Canada housing starts, U.S. NY Fed manufacturing, import prices, export prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output and business inventories.

EUR/USD – 1.0027

Despite euro's decline from last Friday's 1.0089 high to 0.9914 Monday, subsequent erratic rise to 1.0078 in New York yesterday due to active buying in euro on market's hawkish EBC outlook suggests choppy swings above Aug's 20-year 0.9901 trough may continue and above 1.0089 may head to 1.0123, 1.0146/47.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.0000 would yield re-test of Wednesday's 0.9972 low, break would extend further weakness towards 0.9947.

Data to be released on Thursday

Australia AIG manufacturing index, manufacturing PMI, building capex, capital expenditure, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, China Caixin manufacturing PMI.
Germany retail sales, S n P manufacturing PMI, Swiss CPI, retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy S n P manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, GDP, France S n P manufacturing PMI, EU S n P manufacturing PMI, employment change, U.K. S n P manufacturing PMI.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, S n P manufacturing PMI, construction spending, USM manufacturing PMI, Canada building permits and S n P manufacturing PMI.

EUR/USD – 0.9968

Euro's break of July's 0.9953 low Monday to a fresh 20-year trough of 0.9901 Tuesday confirms long term downtrend has resumed, however, subsequent bounce to 1.0018, then erratic rise to 1.0033 yesterday signals a temporary low is made, intra-day fall to 0.9950 would yield 0.9901, break, 0.9883.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0000 would risk stronger retracement of said decline towards 1.0033, 1.0071.

Data to be released on Friday

Japan Tokyo CPI.
Germany Gfk consumer confidence, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence.
U.S. personal spending, personal income, PCE prices index, goods trade balance wholesale inventories, University of Michigan sentiment and Canada budget balance.

EUR/USD – 1.0032

Euro's recent decline from August's 1.0368 peak to a 1-month low of 1.0033 in New York last Friday due to broad-based usd's strength in tandem with rally in U.S. yields suggests re-test of July's 20-year bottom at 0.9953 would be seen later today or tomorrow before prospect of minor recovery.

On the upside, only a daily close abovw 1.0095 would risk retracement towards 1.0123.

Data to be released today

U.S. national activity index and Canada new housing price index on Monday.

EUR/USD – 1.0301

As euro's recent daily choppy swings from August's 1.0293 high had ended with Wednesday's jump to a 5-week peak of 1.0368 after softer-than-expected U.S. CPI, suggesting rise from July's 20-year 0.9953 bottom would head towards 1.0418 before prospect of a strong retreat later.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.0265/70 would indicate a temporary top is in place and risk stronger retracement towards 1.0247, then 1.0203.

Data to be released on Thursday

U.K. RICS housing price balance, Japan market holiday, Australia consumer inflation experience, U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims and PPI.

EUR/USD – 1.0198

Euro's decline from Tue's near 4-week peak at 1.0293 to 1.0124 (Wednesday) suggests recent upmove from July's 20-year bottom at 0.9953 has made a top and despite staging a rebound to 1.0253 Thursday, selloff to 1.0142 on Friday and then Monday's rebound to 1.0221 on broad-based usd's weakness in tandem with U.S. yields would yield further choppy swings before fall. Below 1.0124/30, 1.0097 later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0221 would bring stronger gain to 1.0240/50 but 1.0290/95 should hold.

Data to be released on Tuesday

New Zealand retail sales, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence.
U.K. BRC retail sales.
U.S. labor costs, productivity and redbook retail sales.

EUR/USD – 1.0166

Euro's decline from Tuesday's near 4-week 1.0293 peak to 1.0124 (Wednesday) suggests recent rise from July's 20-year bottom at 0.9953 has made a top and despite staging a strong bounce to 1.0253 on Thursday, subsequent selloff to 1.0142 on blowout U.S. NFP Friday would re-test 1.0124, 1.0090/95 but 1.0048/50 may hold.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0209 would prolong choppy swings and risk gain to 1.0235/39 before down.

Data to be released today

Japan current account, trade balance, Eco watchers current, Eco watchers outlook, New Zealand inflation forecast, Swiss unemployment and EU Sentix index on Monday.

EUR/USD – 1.0240
Despite euro's retreat from Tue's near 4-week high of 1.0293 to 1.0124 (Wednesday), subsequent rebound to 1.0253 in New York yesterday on broad-based usd's weakness suggests choppy swings would continue ahead of key U.S. jobs report, above 1.0293 needed to extend rise from July's 0.9953 bottom to 1.0334, break, 1.0360.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.0209 signals intra-day top is made n heads back to 1.0161 (New York low), 1.0124.

Data to be released on Friday:
Australia AIG services index, Japan all household spending, coincident index, leading indicator.
UK Halifax housing prices, France current account, trade balance, industrial output, imports, exports, non-farm payrolls, Italy industrial output.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average weekly earnings, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and Ivey PMI.

EUR/USD – 1.0268
Although euro's erratic rise from last week's low at 1.0097 (Wed) to a 1-week high of 1.0275 in New York yesterday suggests correction from 1.0278 has ended, subsequent retreat may yield further choppy swings and below 1.0226 (New York low) would head towards 1.0206, break, 1.0165/70.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.0278 is needed to extend rise from 0.9953 (July) to 1.0320/25 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia building permits, RBA interest rate decision, New Zealand GDT price.
U.K. Nationwide house price, Swiss consumer confidence, manufacturing PMI.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings, Canada S&P manufacturing PMI.
 

EUR/USD – 1.0181
Despite euro's erratic fall from last Thurday's 2-week high of 1.0278 to retrace rise from July's 20-year bottom at 0.9953 to 1.0097 in post-FOMC, subsequent rally on broad-based usd's weakness due to less hawkish comments by Fed's Powell suggests pullback possibly over, above 1.0257 would yield stronger gain to 1.0295/00.

On the downside, only below 1.0150/55 would risk another fall towards 1.0097.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia retail sales, export prices, import prices.
France producer prices, Italy industrial sales, trade balance, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer sentiment, Germany CPI.
US GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, KC Fed manufacturing and Canada average weekly earnings.
 

EUR/USD – 1.0169
Euro's selloff below May's 5-year low of 1.0350 to 1.0163 Wed and yesterday's break there to a fresh 20-year bottom of 1.0145 in New York on continued safe-haven usd buying suggests price would head to 1.0100/05, loss of momentum may keep price above projected 1.0075/80 support today.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0236 confirms a temporary low is in place and risks stronger retracement to 1.0271/76.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan all household spending, current account, trade balance, eco watchers current, eco watchers outlook.
France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy industrial output.
US non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average weekly earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, Canada employment change and unemployment rate.

EUR/USD – 1.0432
Despite euro's selloff to a 2-week bottom at 1.0367 in New York Friday, subsequent strong short-covering rise to 1.0462 in Europe yesterday suggests choppy trading above May's 5-year trough at 1.0350 would continue and range trading is seen before prospect of another fall but below 1.0350/60 needed to extend to 1.0320/30.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0462 would risk stronger retracement towards 1.0488, break, 1.0505/10.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand business confidence, Australia AIG construction index, services PMI, RBA interest rate decision, Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, China Caixin manufacturing PMI,
France industrial output, SnP global services PMI, Italy SnP global services PMI, Germany SnP global services PMI, EU SnP global services PMI, UK SnP global services PMI.
Canada building permits, US durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders and durables ex-transport.

EUR/USD – 1.0530
Despite euro's resumption of recent erratic rise from June's 1-month trough of 1.0360 to a 2-week high of 1.0614 Mon, yesterday's break of 1.0555 support to 1.0504 in New York on broad-based rebound in usd suggests a temporary top is made and stronger retracement towards 1.0445 is envisaged before prospect of recovery later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0555 would prolong choppy sideways swings and risk gain to 1.0590/00.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
U.K. BRC shop price index, Japan retail sales, consumer confidence, Australia retail sales, Swiss investor sentiment, EU business sentiment, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence,
U.S. mortgage application, GDP and PCE prices.

EUR/USD – 1.0540

Despite euro's resumption of decline from May's 1.0786 peak to a 1-month bottom of 1.0360 in post-FOMC Wednesday, subsequent rebound and then yesterday's rally above 1.0507 (now support) to 1.0601 on broad-based usd's selloff signals choppy swings above May's 5-year 1.0350 trough would continue but 1.0642 should cap upside and yield retreat.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.0507 would indicate aforesaid recovery over and risk weakness towards 1.0452.

Data to be released on Friday

New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Japan interest rate decision.
Italy trade balance, EU HICP.
Canada producer prices, U.S. industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output and leading index.
 

EUR/USD – 1.0428

Although euro's selloff from Thur's post-ECB 1.0773 high to a near 1-month bottom at 1.0398 in Asia Tue due to active safe-haven USD's buying on global stock market rout and rally in US yields suggests re-test of May's 5-year trough at 1.0350 would be seen, subsequent rebound would yield range trading and below would extend towards 1.0320.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0507 would indicate a temporary trough is in place and risk stronger retracement towards 1.0535, then 1.0550.

Data to be released on Wednesday

New Zealand current account, Japan machinery orders, tertiary industry activities, Australia consumer sentiment, China industrial output, retail sales.
Germany wholesale price index, Swiss producer/import price, France CPI, EU trade balance, industrial production.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, NY Fed manufacturing, import prices, export prices, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, Fed interest rate decision and Canada housing starts.

EUR/USD – 1.0696

Euro's selloff from last Mon's 1-month peak at 1.0786 to as low as 1.0628 (Wed) suggests upmove from May's fresh 5-year bottom at 1.0350 has made a top there and despite strong rebound to 1.0764 Fri, subsequent retreat to 1.0653 in New York Tue and then rebound would yield range trading before prospect of another fall, below 1.0653 would yield 1.0628.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0751 would risk stronger gain towards 1.0764 but 1.0786 should hold initially.

Data to be released on Wednesday

Japan current account, trade balance, GDP, eco watchers current, eco watchers outlook.
Swiss unemployment rate, U.K. Halifax house prices, S&P construction PMI, Germany industrial output, France trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales, EU employment, GDU.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.

EUR/USD – 1.0646

Euro's selloff from Monday's 1-month 1.0786 high to 1.0680 Tuesday and yesterday's break there to as low as 1.0628 in New York on rally in usd in tandem with US yields suggests correction from May's 5-year trough of 1.0350 has made a temporary top there and further weakness towards 1.0608 would be seen but oversold condition should keep price above 1.0568 and yield rebound.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0680 would indicate pullback over and risk stronger gain towards 1.0706 before down.

Data to be released on Thursday

New Zealand import prices, export prices, Australia trade balance, imports, exports.
Swiss CPI, U.K. Market Holiday, Italy Market Holiday, EU producer prices.
Canada building permits, U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, durables ex-defense, durables goods, durable ex-transport and factory orders.

EUR/USD – 1.0747
Euro's intra-day strong retreat in Asia on broad-based rebound in usd suggests recent corrective upmove from May's 5-year bottom at 1.0350 has possibly made a temporary top at yesterday's fresh 1-month peak at 1.0786 and further weakness to 1.0727/31 would be seen, below would head towards 1.0698, 1.0663 later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0786 would indicate aforesaid pullback over and risk one more rise towards 1.0807.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand building permits, NBNA business outlook, NBNA own activity, Japan unemployment rate , industrial production, retail sales, consumer confidence, construction orders, Australia building permits, business inventories, current account, net exports contribution, China NBS manufacturing PMI, NBS non-manufacturing PMI.

U.K. nationwide house price, Swiss exports, imports, trade balance, retail sales, GDP, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI, producer prices, Germany unemployment rate, unemployment change, Italy GDP, CPI, EU HICP, Canada GDP.

U.S. monthly home price, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.

EUR/USD – 1.0737

Euro's strong rebound from 1.0663 to 1.0731 in New York on broad-based usd's weakness due to rally in U.S. stocks suggests pullback form Tue's 1-month 1.0748 peak has possibly ended and above would extend upmove from May's 5-year bottom at 1.0350 to 1.0780/90, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 1.0807 and yield decline later.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.0690/95 would indicate a temporary top possibly made and yield weakness towards 1.0663, then 1.0643 Monday.

Data to be released on Friday

Japan Tokyo CPI, Australia retail sales, Italy trade balance.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, University of Michigan sentiment and Canada budget balance.

EUR/USD – 1.0728

Although euro's rally above 1.0697 (Mon) to a 1-month peak at 1.0748 in New York after hawkish comments from ECB's Lagarde suggests upmove from May's 5-year bottom at 1.0350 would extend marginally, reckon 1.0770/75 would remain intact and yield prospect of another fall due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, daily close below 1.0697 would indicate a temporary top is in place and yield weakness towards 1.0662, break, 1.0608/10 later.

Data to be released on Wednesday

Australia construction work done, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany GDP, Gfk consumer confidence, France consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment, U.S. mortgage application, durable goods, durables ex-transport and durables ex-defense.

EUR/USD – 1.0479
Euro's selloff from 1.0563 to 1.0461 in New York yesterday on renewed safe-haven usd's buying due to fall in U.S. yields and U.S. stocks suggests recent corrective upmove from last Friday's fresh 5-year bottom at 1.0350 has ended there and below 1.0438/42 would yield further weakness to 1.0390/00 later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0495/00 may risk stronger recovery to 1.0530/40.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
EU current account, construction orders.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, existing home sales, leading index, Canada new housing price index and producer prices.

EUR/USD – 1.0562

Although euro's retreat from last Thursday's 8-day high of 1.0641 suggests recovery from April's fresh 5-year bottom at 1.0472 has possibly ended, Friday's rebound from 1.0483 to 1.0600 in New York and yesterday's fall to 1.0496 at European open suggest further volatile swings above said support would continue before prospect of another fall, below 1.0483 would head towards 1.0472, then 1.0405/10.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0600 would risk re-test of 1.0641, break, 1.0698/00 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday

New Zealand retail sales, NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence.
U.K. BRC retail sales, Japan all household spending, Australia retail sales, Italy industrial output, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW economic expectation.
Canada leading index and U.S. redbook.

EUR/USD – 1.0562

Although euro's retreat from last Thursday's 8-day high of 1.0641 suggests recovery from April's fresh 5-year bottom at 1.0472 has possibly ended, Friday's rebound from 1.0483 to 1.0600 in New York and yesterday's fall to 1.0496 at European open suggest further volatile swings above said support would continue before prospect of another fall, below 1.0483 would head towards 1.0472, then 1.0405/10.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0600 would risk re-test of 1.0641, break, 1.0698/00 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday

New Zealand retail sales, NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence.
U.K. BRC retail sales, Japan all household spending, Australia retail sales, Italy industrial output, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW economic expectation.
Canada leading index and U.S. redbook.

EUR/USD – 1.0542

Despite euro's rally to a 8-day high in Asia Thursday, subsequent selloff to as low as 1.0493 in New York on renewed broad-based rally in usd suggests recovery from last Thursday's 5-year bottom at 1.0472 has possibly ended and below 1.0472 would extend recent downtrend to 1.0405/10.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0578/83 would prolongs choppy swings and risks stronger retracement to 1.0603, break, 1.0630/40.

Data to be released on Friday

Australia AIG services index, Japan Tokyo CPI.
Swiss unemployment rate, U.K. Halifax house prices, Markit construction PMI, Germany industrial output, France non-farm payrolls, Italy retail sales.
U.S. Non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and Ivey PMI.

EUR/USD – 1.0542

Despite euro's rally to a 8-day high in Asia Thursday, subsequent selloff to as low as 1.0493 in New York on renewed broad-based rally in usd suggests recovery from last Thursday's 5-year bottom at 1.0472 has possibly ended and below 1.0472 would extend recent downtrend to 1.0405/10.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0578/83 would prolongs choppy swings and risks stronger retracement to 1.0603, break, 1.0630/40.

Data to be released on Friday

Australia AIG services index, Japan Tokyo CPI.
Swiss unemployment rate, U.K. Halifax house prices, Markit construction PMI, Germany industrial output, France non-farm payrolls, Italy retail sales.
U.S. Non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and Ivey PMI.

EUR/USD – 1.0520

Euro's decline to 1.0491 (New Yoyk) on Mon due to renewed usd's strength on gain in U.S. yields suggests correction from Thursday's 5-year bottom at 1.0472 has ended and re-test of this key sup is envisaged after consolidation, loss of downward momentum would limit weakness to 1.0435/40.

Only above 1.0568 prolongs choppy swings above 1.0472 and may risk gain towards 1.0592 but reckon 1.0630/35 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Tuesday

New Zealand building permits, GDT price index, Australia RBA interest rate decision Japan Market Holiday, China Market Holiday.
France budget balance, Germany unemployment rate, unemployment change, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, EU producer prices, unemployment rate.
U.S. redbook, durable goods, durables ex-defense, factory orders, durables ex-transport, JOLTS job openings.

EUR/USD – 1.0520

Euro's decline to 1.0491 (New Yoyk) on Mon due to renewed usd's strength on gain in U.S. yields suggests correction from Thursday's 5-year bottom at 1.0472 has ended and re-test of this key sup is envisaged after consolidation, loss of downward momentum would limit weakness to 1.0435/40.

Only above 1.0568 prolongs choppy swings above 1.0472 and may risk gain towards 1.0592 but reckon 1.0630/35 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Tuesday

New Zealand building permits, GDT price index, Australia RBA interest rate decision Japan Market Holiday, China Market Holiday.
France budget balance, Germany unemployment rate, unemployment change, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, EU producer prices, unemployment rate.
U.S. redbook, durable goods, durables ex-defense, factory orders, durables ex-transport, JOLTS job openings.

EUR/USD – 1.0640

Although euro's selloff below 1.0698 (Monday) to 1.0637 in New York yesterday, then intra-day break there to a 5-year bottom at 1.0636 in Australia on continued usd's strength suggests marginal weakness is seen, oversold condition should prevent steep fall today and yield a much-needed correction, above 1.0698 would head back to 1.0720 later.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.0600/10 may dampen bullish prospect of view and risk further weakness towards 1.0571 before rebound.

Data to be released on Wednesday

Australia CPI, Germany Gfk consumer sentiment.
Italy trade balance, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and pending home sales.

EUR/USD – 1.0842

Euro's rally above 1.0834/37 resistance to 1.0867 in Europe on broad-based retreat in usd due to fall in U.S. yields suggests recent erratic decline has made a temporary bottom at last Thursday's near 2-year bottom at 1.0758 and stronger retracement towards 1.0890/94 is likely before another fall, below 1.0807 would head back to 1.0783, then 1.0758/62 later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0923 would risk stronger gain to 1.0938/45, break, 1.0965/70.

Data to be released on Thursday

New Zealand CPI.
France business climate, EU HICP.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index and EU consumer confidence.

EUR/USD – 1.0774

Euro's selloff from last Thursday's peak at 1.0923 to a near 2-year bottom at 1.0758 in post-ECB suggests medium term downtrend remains in force and as 1.0830 has capped subsequent recovery, yesterday's retreat to 1.0771 on broad-based usd's strength due to rally in U.S. yields suggests consolidation with downside bias remains, below 1.0758 would yield 1.0730/35.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0834 signals a temporary trough is in place and risks stronger gain to 1.0860/70.

Data to be released on Tuesday 

New Zealand business NZ PSI, GDT price index, Japan industrial production, capacity utilization.
Canada housing starts, U.S. housing starts, building permits and redbook.

EUR/USD – 1.0823

Euro's selloff from 1.1184 (Thur) to 1.0837 on Mon and yesterday's break there to a fresh 1-month bottom at 1.0822 in New York on continued usd's strength due to rally in U.S. yields suggests early correction from Mar's 22-month bottom at 1.0807 has ended and downside bias remains for re-test of 1.0807, break would recent downtrend to 1.0760.later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0903 signals a temporary bottom is in place and risks stronger retracement towards 1.0933/38, break, 1.0961.

Data to be released on Wednesday

New Zealand food price index, RBNZ interest rate decision, Japan machinery orders, Australia consumer sentiment, China trade balance, imports, exports.
U.K. PPI output prices, PPI input prices, RPI, CPI, DCLG house price, Italy industrial output.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, PPI and Canada interest decision.

EUR/USD – 1.0881

Euro's selloff from 1.1184 (Thursday) to a 1-month bottom at 1.0837 on continued usd's strength due to rally in U.S. yields suggests early correction from March's 22-month bottom at 1.0807 has ended and as price has fallen again after yesterday's gap-up open to 1.0934 in New Zealand, consolidation with downside bias remains for re-test of 1.0837, break, 1.0807 later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0934/38 would signal a temporary bottom is in place and risk stronger retracement towards 1.0961, break, 1.0988 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday

Japan producer prices, Australia NAB business confidence, NAB business conditions.
U.K. BRC retail sales, average weekly earnings, employment change, ILO unemployment rate, claimant count,
Germany HICP, CPI, ZEW current conditions, ZEW economic sentiment, France exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU ZEW survey expectation.
U.S. CPI, redbook and Federal budget.

EUR/USD – 1.0862

Euro's selloff from last Thursday's high at 1.1184 to 1.0866 in New York yesterday on continued USD's strength, then present break there in Asia suggests correction from March's 22-month bottom at 1.0807 has ended and bearishness remains for re-test of said support, break needed to extend decline to 1.0755/60.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0938 would signal a temporary bottom is in place and risk stronger retracement towards 1.0961, break, 1.0988 later.

Data to be released on Friday

Japan current account, trade balance, consumer confidence, Eco watchers current, Eco watchers outlook.
Italy retail sales.

Canada unemployment rate, employment change, U.S. wholesale sales and wholesale inventories.
 

EUR/USD – 1.0907
Euro's resumption of decline from last Thursday's 4-week peak at 1.1184 to as low as 1.0874 yesterday suggests correction from March's 22-month bottom at 1.0807 has possibly ended there and as 1.0937 has capped subsequent recovery in New York, consolidation with downside bias remains for re-test of said support, below would extend towards 1.0846 but 1.0807 should remain intact.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0940/45 may risk stronger retracement of said fall towards 1.0988.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia AIG services index, exports, imports, trade balance, Japan leading indicator, coincident index, machine tool orders.
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, U.K. Halifax house price, EU retail sales.
U.S. continuing jobless claims and initial jobless claims.

Daily market outlook on major

Update Time: 31 Mar 2022 03:00GMT

EUR/USD – 1.1167

Euro's rally above previous resistance at 1.1137 to a 4-week high at 1.1170 in New York yesterday on broad-based retreat in usd suggests corrective upmove from March's fresh 22-month 1.0807 bottom remains in force and further gain to 1.1200/05 may be seen before prospect of decline later due to loss of upward momentum.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1100 signals a temporary top is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1071/72, break, 1.1045.

Data to be released on Thursday

Japan industrial output, housing starts, construction orders, Australia building permits, China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS manufacturing PMI.
U.K. nationwide house price, Swiss retail sales, France producer prices, CPI, consumer spending, Germany retail sales, unemployment rate, unemployment change, Italy CPI, unemployment rate, EU unemployment rate.
U.S. continuing jobless claims, initial jobless claims, PCE price index, personal spending, personal income, Chicago PMI and Canada GDP.

EUR/USD – 1.0984

Although Monday's initial break of last week's low at 1.0961 to 1.0945 in Europe suggests euro's correction from March's 22-month bottom at 1.0807 has ended, subsequent short-covering rebound to 1.0999 would yield choppy swings before prospect of another fall, loss of momentum should keep price above pivotal sup at 1.0902.

\Only a daily close above 1.1000 may shift risk to the upside for risk stronger retracement to 1.1035/45.

Data to be released today

Japan unemployment rate, Australia retail sales.
Germany import prices, Gfk consumer sentiment.
Canada average weekly earnings, U.S. redbook, monthly home price, JOLTS jobs openings and consumer confidence on Tuesday.

EUR/USD – 1.1047
Euro's strong retreat from last Friday's 12-day high at 1.1137 to as low as 1.1004 in New York signals corrective upmove from March's fresh 22-month bottom at 1.0807 has possibly made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains, below 1.1004 would yield further weakness towards 1.0972 but 1.0951 should remain intact.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1094 would dampen bearishness and risk stronger gain to 1.1118/20, break, 1.1137 again.

Data to be released next week :
New Zealand exports, trade balance, imports, Japan Market Holiday.
U.K. Rightmove house price, Germany producer prices.
U.S. national activity on Monday.

EUR/USD – 1.1086
Euro's strong rebound from last Monday's fresh 22-month bottom at 1.0807 signals erratic decline from 1.1495 (February) has made a low there and yesterday's break of last Thursday's 1.1120 top to a 12-day peak at 1.1137 in New York on broad-based usd's weakness signals gain to 1.1145/55 is envisaged but 1.1187 should hold.

On the downside, only a daily close below Wednesday's 1.1009 trough signals temporary top is made and would risk weakness to 1.0951/55 on next Monday.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand GDP, Japan nationwide CPI, BOJ interest rate decision, tertiary industry activity.
Italy trade balance, EU labour costs, trade balance, Canada retail sales, new housing price index, U.S. leading index change and existing home sales.